What happened: Bill Barnwell's projection weighs variables that can shift between seasons, including turnover luck, injuries and schedule strength. Detroit also draws Arizona in conference play.

Why it matters: Better health and more favorable loose-ball outcomes could lift Detroit after a missed-playoff season. The forecast treats the downturn as reversible rather than structural.

What to watch: The upcoming season will show whether Detroit's defense stays healthier and converts more loose-ball chances.