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NFL·PREVIEW·September 30, 2026 11:16 PM ET

McElroy picks No. 8 Florida to beat No. 25 Missouri 31-24

Baugh has 600 yards, 11 TDs in four games

Wire Report IntelligenceUpdated 54m2 min read
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What happened: Greg McElroy picked No. 8 Florida to win 31-24 at No. 25 Missouri on Saturday. Kickoff is Oct. 3 at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. He cited Florida's deeper offense and Missouri's red-zone issues.

Why it matters: Florida rose from No. 21 to No. 8 after a 52-28 win over No. 4 Ole Miss, while Missouri fell from No. 19 to No. 25 after giving up the final 14 points in a 31-24 loss at Mississippi State. A Florida win moves the Gators to 5-0 and 3-0 in SEC play, while a loss drops Missouri to 0-2 in the league.

By the numbers: Jadan Baugh has 600 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns through four games, including 142 yards and three scores against Ole Miss for his fifth straight 100-yard game. Austin Simmons has 11 touchdown passes without an interception, with Cayden Lee posting 156 receiving yards at Mississippi State. Missouri has stopped 45 runs at or behind the line, while Florida scores touchdowns on five of every six red-zone trips.

What to watch: Kickoff is Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. The watch is whether Missouri holds Baugh under three yards per carry and whether Florida receiver Vernell Brown III returns from a mild knee strain.

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