What happened: The estimate assumes Denver matches Spencer Jones' offer sheet and signs Peyton Watson for $23 million. That combination would put team salary at $246 million and trigger $231 million in luxury tax.
Why it matters: The scenario turns two restricted-free-agent decisions into a broader roster-cost test for Denver. The projected tax charge is nearly as large as the payroll, increasing pressure for salary-reducing moves.
By the numbers: The $477 million total consists of $246 million in payroll and $231 million in tax. The projected one-year tax bill is 4.4 times the $53 million Denver has paid in penalties since 2002-03.
What to watch: Denver's decision on Jones' offer sheet comes first, with Watson's contract situation also unresolved.