Fantasy evidence desk · NFL Week 5

Week 5: what changed, what the data shows, what is still unknown

Wire Report shows what changed, what the data proves happened the last time it changed, and what is still unknown, checked before it publishes.

Data through Week 5, heading into Week 6.

Editor gate PASS

234 of 235Claims checked (100%)

227Verified

7Flagged by the editor

1Could not be checked

Audited Oct 13, 2026, 13:11 UTC; data observed through 2026-10-13 12:00 UTC. Blocking findings: 0. The editor checks the full desk build for the week, which includes material not shown on this page; flags on this page are listed under each product. Audit record 3d600d2e3ede38ff.

Still unknown

1 of 235 claims in this build could not be checked against the underlying data.
Every with/without split, every baseline and every persistence call rests on a few games; samples are shown, not hidden.

FACTreported or recorded data. DERIVEDour calculation, definition shown. INFERENCEinterpretation: associations, not causes.

Opportunity Ledger · Week 5

Whose opportunity changed

Target and carry shares this week against each player's own trailing baseline (Weeks 2-4). Share separates a player's slice from the size of the team's pie.

How this is measured

Target share: player targets / all team player targets in the game

Baseline: pooled share over Weeks 2-4 games played for the same team (n shown)

Change: percentage points, this week minus baseline

Snap % / RZ: offensive snap share as reported (baseline in brackets); red-zone targets or carries = plays starting inside the opponent 20, player/team (derived from play-by-play)

Filter: RB/WR/TE; at least 2 baseline games for the same team; movers need 5+ targets (or carries) this week or per baseline game

DERIVEDTarget share up

Player	Tgt	Team tgt	Share	Base share	Δ pts	Base n	Snap %	RZ tgt
Tyjae Spears RB TEN	9	35	25.7%	3.8%	+22.0	3	54% (42%)	0/2
Isaiah Bond WR CLE	7	32	21.9%	2.2%	+19.7	3	72% (9%)	0/2
Germie Bernard WR PIT	9	30	30.0%	10.3%	+19.7	3	92% (34%)	1/4
Gavin Bartholomew TE MINFACTJordan Addison (WR) did not play in Week 5	6	29	20.7%	1.3%	+19.4	3	62% (15%)	1/5
Malik Nabers WR NYG	20	52	38.5%	20.7%	+17.7	3	90% (77%)	3/5
Jerry Jeudy WR CLE	7	32	21.9%	4.3%	+17.6	3	81% (45%)	0/2
Emeka Egbuka WR TB	9	25	36.0%	18.9%	+17.1	3	89% (84%)	2/4
Roschon Johnson RB CHIFACTKyle Monangai (RB) did not play in Week 5	7	40	17.5%	1.0%	+16.5	3	39% (6%)	1/4

DERIVEDTarget share down

Player	Tgt	Team tgt	Share	Base share	Δ pts	Base n	Snap %	RZ tgt
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL	5	42	11.9%	33.3%	-21.4	3	57% (84%)	0/3
RJ Harvey RB DEN	1	22	4.5%	24.6%	-20.1	2	37% (40%)	1/4
Carnell Tate WR TEN	5	35	14.3%	32.5%	-18.2	3	76% (86%)	0/2
Michael Wilson WR ARI	7	46	15.2%	33.3%	-18.1	3	84% (94%)	0/10
Tee Higgins WR CIN	4	31	12.9%	27.3%	-14.4	3	69% (86%)	0/8
Roman Wilson WR PIT	1	30	3.3%	16.8%	-13.5	3	33% (35%)	0/4
Michael Mayer TE LV	1	36	2.8%	15.7%	-13.0	3	65% (88%)	0/5
Davante Adams WR LAR	7	54	13.0%	24.8%	-11.8	3	73% (89%)	3/10

DERIVEDCarry share up

Player	Car	Team car	Share	Base share	Δ pts	Base n	Snap %	RZ car
Kendre Miller RB NOFACTTravis Etienne Jr. (RB) has missed Weeks 4-5 (IR)	10	17	58.8%	21.3%	+37.5	2	31% (23%)	4/4
Braelon Allen RB NYJFACTBreece Hall (RB) has missed Weeks 4-5; Adonai Mitchell (WR) has missed Weeks 3-5	24	32	75.0%	38.3%	+36.7	3	86% (73%)	0/2
Samaje Perine RB CIN	14	31	45.2%	14.3%	+30.9	3	51% (34%)	4/9
Javonte Williams RB DAL	12	13	92.3%	65.8%	+26.5	3	85% (75%)	2/2
Bhayshul Tuten RB JAX	22	27	81.5%	55.6%	+25.9	3	68% (54%)	3/4
Woody Marks RB HOU	15	27	55.6%	32.8%	+22.8	3	85% (41%)	4/6
Emanuel Wilson RB SEAFACTJadarian Price (RB) has missed Weeks 4-5 (IR)	20	26	76.9%	56.0%	+20.9	3	59% (48%)	3/3
Roschon Johnson RB CHIFACTKyle Monangai (RB) did not play in Week 5	5	24	20.8%	3.3%	+17.5	3	39% (6%)	1/6

DERIVEDCarry share down

Player	Car	Team car	Share	Base share	Δ pts	Base n	Snap %	RZ car
Chase Brown RB CIN	13	31	41.9%	75.0%	-33.1	3	60% (75%)	4/9
TreVeyon Henderson RB NEFACTMack Hollins (WR) has missed Week 5 (IR)	4	31	12.9%	42.7%	-29.8	3	16% (37%)	0/6
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB JAX	2	27	7.4%	24.7%	-17.3	3	12% (23%)	1/4
Alvin Kamara RB NOFACTTravis Etienne Jr. (RB) has missed Weeks 4-5 (IR)	3	17	17.6%	33.8%	-16.1	3	27% (35%)	0/4
Mike Washington Jr. RB LV	1	18	5.6%	20.7%	-15.2	3	8% (19%)	0/3
Cam Skattebo RB NYG	13	28	46.4%	61.0%	-14.5	3	63% (71%)	0/3
Kaleb Johnson RB GB	7	26	26.9%	38.5%	-11.5	3	15% (32%)	0/3
Ashton Jeanty RB LV	10	18	55.6%	67.1%	-11.5	3	53% (76%)	1/3

DERIVEDNot counted as role changes because he appears to have left the game early (snap evidence): Chris Moore (BAL): 9% of offensive snaps, after 52% in his previous game; KC Concepcion (CLE): 16% of offensive snaps, after 92% in his previous game; David Montgomery (HOU): 14% of offensive snaps, after 56% in his previous game; T.J. Hockenson (MIN): 3% of offensive snaps, after 83% in his previous game.

FACTRecorded in the box score with zero targets and zero carries this week (not counted as movers; availability or an early exit is the first thing to check): Ted Hurst III (TB, baseline 15% tgt / 0% car).

Week 5 opportunity: Tyjae Spears drew 9 of TEN's 35 targets (26%). Over Weeks 2-4 he had 4% of team targets (pooled, 3 games: 3 of 80). Change: +22 points.

Week 5 opportunity: Isaiah Bond drew 7 of CLE's 32 targets (22%). Over Weeks 2-4 he had 2% of team targets (pooled, 3 games: 2 of 93). Change: +20 points.

Editor notes, still open.

Ashton Jeanty red-zone car: report 1/3, play-by-play recount 1/2 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)
Bhayshul Tuten red-zone car: report 3/4, play-by-play recount 2/3 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)
Chris Rodriguez Jr. red-zone car: report 1/4, play-by-play recount 1/3 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)
Javonte Williams red-zone car: report 2/2, play-by-play recount 2/3 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)
Mike Washington Jr. red-zone car: report 0/3, play-by-play recount 0/2 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)
TreVeyon Henderson red-zone car: report 0/6, play-by-play recount 0/7 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)

Found an error on this page? Every correction is logged in public in the corrections log.

Absence Redistribution · Week 5

Where the work went when a starter sat

For each notable absence, teammates' shares in games without the player against games with him. Small samples are shown, not hidden.

How this is measured

Notable absence: RB/WR/TE whose team played in Week 5, who recorded no offensive snap or stat, and who held >= 15% of team targets or >= 35% of team carries in at least 2 earlier full games

With / without: pooled share over earlier FULL games the absent player played; pooled share over games the absent player missed (this week plus any earlier misses)

Partial games: a game he started but did not finish (injury or exit reported in that week, under half his usual snap share, or under 35% of his usual opportunity share) is its own bucket, excluded from both

Absence class: season-ending only when our reported-news layer holds an explicit season-ending report (two or more reports, or one wire.report article); injured reserve alone is multi-week; otherwise week-to-week

Status: attributed to the official designation; season-ending only when reported as such; we do not forecast recovery

De'Von Achane RB, MIAseason-ending

Out for the season since Week 3.

FACTOfficial status: IR (knee). Source: injured-reserve placement, as of Sep 28, 2026.

FACTReported: season-ending torn ACL, Week 3, per reports (8 reports in our news store)

DERIVEDPartial game excluded from both buckets: Week 3 (injured in this game, per reports)

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-2, n=2): 22.0% of team targets (11/50), 67.4% of team carries (31/46).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 25.0 targets, 23.0 carries. Without him (Weeks 4, 5): 21.5 targets, 26.0 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Ollie Gordon II RB	0.0%	4.7%	+4.7	0.0	1.0	6.5%	51.9%	+45.4	2/2
Jaylen Wright RB	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	6.5%	21.2%	+14.6	2/2
Malik Washington WR	26.0%	30.2%	+4.2	6.5	6.5	2.2%	5.8%	+3.6	2/2
Chris Bell WR	6.0%	11.6%	+5.6	1.5	2.5	0.0%	1.9%	+1.9	2/2
Will Kacmarek TE	4.0%	9.3%	+5.3	1.0	2.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	2/2
Greg Dulcich TE	10.0%	11.6%	+1.6	2.5	2.5	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	2/2

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 2 full game(s) with and 2 without. Week 3 excluded from both (partial game).

DeVonta Smith WR, PHIweek-to-week

Has missed Weeks 4-5.

FACTOfficial status: out (Hamstring). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 12, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-3, n=3): 32.9% of team targets (27/82), 0.0% of team carries (0/76).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 27.3 targets, 25.3 carries. Without him (Weeks 4, 5): 31.0 targets, 22.5 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Darius Cooper WR	3.7%	16.1%	+12.5	1.0	5.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	3/2
Dallas Goedert TE	14.0%	24.3%	+10.3	4.0	9.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	2/1
Makai Lemon WR	11.0%	21.0%	+10.0	3.0	6.5	1.3%	0.0%	-1.3	3/2
Dontayvion Wicks WR	18.3%	21.0%	+2.7	5.0	6.5	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	3/2
Zach Ertz TE	8.0%	9.7%	+1.7	2.0	3.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/2
Tank Bigsby RB	3.7%	4.0%	+0.3	1.0	1.0	18.4%	51.9%	+33.4	3/1

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 3 full game(s) with and 2 without.

Breece Hall RB, NYJweek-to-week

Has missed Weeks 4-5.

FACTOfficial status: out (Quadricep). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 12, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-3, n=3): 10.5% of team targets (10/95), 60.0% of team carries (51/85).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 31.7 targets, 28.3 carries. Without him (Weeks 4, 5): 22.0 targets, 23.0 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Braelon Allen RB	5.3%	13.6%	+8.4	1.7	3.0	22.4%	82.6%	+60.3	3/2
Isaiah Davis RB	0.0%	4.5%	+4.5	0.0	1.0	0.0%	4.3%	+4.3	3/2
Isaiah Williams WR	9.5%	11.4%	+1.9	3.0	2.5	1.2%	2.2%	+1.0	3/2
Malik McClain WR	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/2
Jelani Woods TE	1.1%	4.5%	+3.5	0.3	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	3/2
Andrew Beck RB	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	3/2

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 3 full game(s) with and 2 without.

Adonai Mitchell WR, NYJweek-to-week

Has missed Weeks 3-5.

FACTOfficial status: out (Finger). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 12, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-2, n=2): 25.4% of team targets (15/59), 0.0% of team carries (0/66).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 29.5 targets, 33.0 carries. Without him (Weeks 3, 4, 5): 26.7 targets, 21.7 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Garrett Wilson WR	23.7%	35.0%	+11.3	7.0	9.3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	2/3
Kenyon Sadiq TE	10.2%	18.8%	+8.6	3.0	5.0	1.5%	0.0%	-1.5	2/3
Braelon Allen RB	3.4%	11.2%	+7.9	1.0	3.0	22.7%	64.6%	+41.9	2/3
Mason Taylor TE	5.1%	10.3%	+5.3	1.5	3.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	2/1
Jelani Woods TE	0.0%	3.8%	+3.8	0.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	2/3
Isaiah Davis RB	0.0%	2.5%	+2.5	0.0	0.7	0.0%	3.1%	+3.1	2/3

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 2 full game(s) with and 3 without.

Stefon Diggs WR, WSHweek-to-week

Missed Week 5.

FACTOfficial status: out (Hamstring). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 12, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-4, n=4): 24.2% of team targets (31/128), 0.0% of team carries (0/118).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 32.0 targets, 29.5 carries. Without him (Weeks 5): 23.0 targets, 30.0 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Treylon Burks WR	6.1%	21.7%	+15.7	2.0	5.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	3/1
Chig Okonkwo TE	10.9%	26.1%	+15.1	3.5	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	2/1
John Bates TE	3.1%	4.3%	+1.2	1.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/1
Luke McCaffrey WR	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/1
Austin Ekeler RB	5.7%	4.3%	-1.4	2.0	1.0	18.2%	10.0%	-8.2	1/1
Dyami Brown WR	10.2%	8.7%	-1.5	3.2	2.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/1

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 4 full game(s) with and 1 without.

Saquon Barkley RB, PHImulti-week

Missed Week 5 (multi-week injury). Hurt in Week 4.

FACTOfficial status: out (Hamstring). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 12, 2026.

DERIVEDPartial game excluded from both buckets: Week 4 (7% of offensive snaps, after 72% in his previous game)

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-3, n=3): 7.3% of team targets (6/82), 44.7% of team carries (34/76).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 27.3 targets, 25.3 carries. Without him (Weeks 5): 37.0 targets, 18.0 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Will Shipley RB	6.1%	5.4%	-0.7	1.7	2.0	11.8%	27.8%	+15.9	3/1
Elijah Moore WR	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/1
Darius Cooper WR	3.7%	8.1%	+4.4	1.0	3.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	3/1
Dontayvion Wicks WR	18.3%	21.6%	+3.3	5.0	8.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	3/1
E.J. Jenkins TE	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	3/1
Zach Ertz TE	8.0%	5.4%	-2.6	2.0	2.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/1

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 3 full game(s) with and 1 without. Week 4 excluded from both (partial game).

Jordan Addison WR, MINweek-to-week

Missed Week 5.

FACTOfficial status: questionable (pre-game), then inactive; did not play (Hamstring). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 12, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-4, n=4): 22.0% of team targets (22/100), 0.9% of team carries (1/116).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 25.0 targets, 29.0 carries. Without him (Weeks 5): 29.0 targets, 36.0 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Gavin Bartholomew TE	1.0%	20.7%	+19.7	0.2	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/1
Myles Price WR	3.0%	13.8%	+10.8	0.8	4.0	0.9%	0.0%	-0.9	4/1
Tai Felton WR	3.0%	10.3%	+7.3	0.8	3.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/1
Jeshaun Jones WR	0.0%	3.4%	+3.4	0.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/1
Demond Claiborne RB	1.3%	3.4%	+2.1	0.3	1.0	7.3%	0.0%	-7.3	3/1
DeeJay Dallas RB	3.0%	3.4%	+0.4	0.8	1.0	2.6%	0.0%	-2.6	4/1

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 4 full game(s) with and 1 without.

Caleb Douglas WR, MIAweek-to-week

Has missed Weeks 3-5.

FACTOfficial status: out (Ankle). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 12, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-2, n=2): 20.0% of team targets (10/50), 0.0% of team carries (0/46).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 25.0 targets, 23.0 carries. Without him (Weeks 3, 4, 5): 26.3 targets, 27.7 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	4.0%	19.0%	+15.0	1.0	5.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	2/3
Chris Bell WR	6.0%	16.5%	+10.5	1.5	4.3	0.0%	1.2%	+1.2	2/3
Ollie Gordon II RB	0.0%	6.3%	+6.3	0.0	1.7	6.5%	53.0%	+46.5	2/3
Greg Dulcich TE	10.0%	15.2%	+5.2	2.5	4.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	2/3
Malik Washington WR	26.0%	29.1%	+3.1	6.5	7.7	2.2%	6.0%	+3.9	2/3
Ryan Miller WR	2.0%	3.8%	+1.8	0.5	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	2/3

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 2 full game(s) with and 3 without.

De'Von Achane has been out for the season since Week 3 (season-ending torn ACL, Week 3, per reports). Ollie Gordon II: 7% of MIA carries in 2 full games with De'Von Achane, 52% in 2 without. Jaylen Wright: 7% of MIA carries in 2 full games with De'Von Achane, 21% in 2 without. Malik Washington: 2% of MIA carries in 2 full games with De'Von Achane, 6% in 2 without. De'Von Achane: Week 3, a partial game, is excluded from both buckets.

Breece Hall has missed Weeks 4-5 (listed Out, quadricep on the injury report). Braelon Allen: 22% of NYJ carries in 3 full games with Breece Hall, 83% in 2 without. Isaiah Davis: 0% of NYJ carries in 3 full games with Breece Hall, 4% in 2 without. Isaiah Williams: 1% of NYJ carries in 3 full games with Breece Hall, 2% in 2 without.

Jadarian Price has missed Weeks 4-5 (on injured reserve since Oct 3, chest). Emanuel Wilson: 40% of SEA carries in 3 full games with Jadarian Price, 70% in 2 without. Rashid Shaheed: 1% of SEA carries in 3 full games with Jadarian Price, 3% in 2 without. Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 0% of SEA carries in 3 full games with Jadarian Price, 2% in 2 without.

Editor notes, still open.

Jordan Addison: shown as 'questionable' (pre-game designation) but he was inactive / did not play Week 5; the outcome is not stated

Found an error on this page? Every correction is logged in public in the corrections log.

Role Persistence Audit · Week 4 → Week 5

Did last week's change hold?

Every role change we flag gets a follow-up. Week 4 movers, checked against Week 5. Tally: held: 5, partial: 2, reversed: 2, unresolved: 3.

How this is measured

Claim record: before (baseline) / trigger (flag week) / after (follow-up week) / status, each with a stable claim ID and version

Mover: share change of 8+ percentage points in Week 4 vs Weeks 1-3 (same rules as the Opportunity Ledger)

Status rule: held: same direction and >= 50% of the trigger change; reversed: opposite direction or < 25%; partial: in between

Provenance: This first audit is RETROACTIVE: claims were reconstructed by the same rule from Week 4 data, not published at the time.

Player	Metric	Before	Trigger (Δ)	After	Status	Claim
Braelon Allen RB NYJ	carry share	22.4% n=3	100.0% +77.6	75.0%	held	FD-28bbb5f1b0 v1
Omarion Hampton RB LAC	carry share	61.7% n=3	28.1% -33.6	41.2%	held	FD-e447d76b1e v1
Tank Bigsby RB PHI	carry share	18.4% n=3	51.9% +33.4	did not play this week	unresolved	FD-847e4b62fe v1
Jaylen Warren RB PIT	carry share	56.7% n=3	89.5% +32.8	68.2%	partial	FD-76c9ea91f2 v1
Kyle Monangai RB CHI	carry share	28.6% n=3	55.6% +27.0	did not play this week	unresolved	FD-a6090cc1a8 v1
Darius Cooper WR PHI	target share	3.7% n=3	28.0% +24.3	8.1%	reversed	FD-e1ea7f91fa v1
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL	target share	24.8% n=3	48.8% +24.1	11.9%	reversed	FD-ecc7a36504 v1
Ollie Gordon II RB MIA	carry share	26.0% n=3	50.0% +24.0	52.9%	held	FD-4b2386172d v1
D'Andre Swift RB CHI	carry share	51.4% n=3	27.8% -23.7	37.5%	held	FD-8754d5fc0f v1
Emanuel Wilson RB SEA	carry share	40.0% n=3	63.6% +23.6	76.9%	held	FD-f25e6295c7 v1
Tyquan Thornton WR KC	target share	7.7% n=3	29.6% +21.9	team had a bye or game not final	unresolved	FD-911f8e2e80 v1
Brenton Strange TE JAX	target share	13.0% n=3	34.8% +21.8	21.1%	partial	FD-161d5532d6 v1

DERIVEDNot flagged as role changes because the trigger game was a partial game: Ja'Marr Chase (CIN, target share, Week 4: 20% of offensive snaps, after 100% in his previous game); Jared Wayne (HOU, target share, Week 4: 29% of offensive snaps, after 61% in his previous game); Rashee Rice (KC, target share, Week 4: 10% of offensive snaps, after 77% in his previous game); Ladd McConkey (LAC, target share, Week 4: 34% of offensive snaps, after 88% in his previous game); Saquon Barkley (PHI, carry share, Week 4: 7% of offensive snaps, after 72% in his previous game)

Week 4 role changes, checked in Week 5: 5 held, 2 partial, 2 reversed, 3 unresolved.

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Fantasy Score Autopsy · Week 5

The week's biggest swings, in arithmetic

How far each player moved from his own season average, split into volume, efficiency, receptions, touchdowns and everything else. The parts add up to the swing.

How this is measured

Scoring: Standard: 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing TD, -2 per interception, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per rushing or receiving TD, -2 per fumble lost, 2 per two-point conversion, 6 per return TD. PPR adds 1 per reception.

Swing: Week points minus the player's average points per game in earlier games this season

Volume: (opportunities now - baseline opportunities per game) x baseline yardage points per opportunity

Efficiency: change in yardage points (0.04 per passing yard, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard) not explained by volume

Touchdowns: change in touchdown points

Other: interceptions, fumbles lost, two-point conversions

Big play: this week's yardage points from the longest rush and longest reception when 20+ yards

volumeefficiencyreceptionstouchdownsother(faded = negative)

Above their average

Drake Maye QB, NE vs LV

FACT26/34, 374 pass yds, 4 TD, 0 INT; 7 car, 25 yds, 1 TD

39.5

PPR pts (std 39.5)

11.9

Avg before, Weeks 1-4 (n=4)

+27.5

PPR swing (std +27.5)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +2.1 · efficiency +3.5 · touchdowns +18.0 · other +4.0

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 41 vs 35.0/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.43 vs 0.34. This week's points: receptions 0.0, yardage 17.5, TDs 22.0, other 0.0.

Jaylen Warren RB, PIT vs IND

FACT15 car, 101 yds, 1 TD; 6/6 rec/tgt, 87 yds, 1 TD

36.8

PPR pts (std 30.8)

14.1

Avg before, Weeks 1-4 (n=4)

+22.8

PPR swing (std +20.0)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +1.4 · efficiency +6.1 · receptions +2.8 · touchdowns +12.0 · other +0.5

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 21 vs 18.8/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.90 vs 0.60. This week's points: receptions 6.0, yardage 18.8; largest-play yardage 13.0 pts (long rec 80, long rush 50), TDs 12.0, other 0.0.

Tyler Huntley QB, BAL vs ATL

FACT24/32, 201 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT; 6 car, 20 yds, 1 TD

24.0

PPR pts (std 24.0)

2.1

Avg before, Weeks 1-4 (n=2)

+22.0

PPR swing (std +22.0)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +10.0 · efficiency -2.0 · touchdowns +14.0

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 38 vs 6.5/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.26 vs 0.32. This week's points: receptions 0.0, yardage 10.0, TDs 14.0, other 0.0.

Bucky Irving RB, TB vs DAL

FACT21 car, 165 yds, 1 TD; 2/3 rec/tgt, 10 yds, 1 TD

31.5

PPR pts (std 29.5)

11.8

Avg before, Weeks 1-4 (n=4)

+19.7

PPR swing (std +21.0)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +2.7 · efficiency +7.3 · receptions -1.3 · touchdowns +10.5 · other +0.5

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 24 vs 17.8/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.73 vs 0.43. This week's points: receptions 2.0, yardage 17.5; largest-play yardage 7.2 pts (long rec 5, long rush 72), TDs 12.0, other 0.0.

Isaiah Likely TE, NYG vs WSH

FACT11/13 rec/tgt, 94 yds, 2 TD

32.4

PPR pts (std 21.4)

13.3

Avg before, Weeks 1-4 (n=4)

+19.2

PPR swing (std +13.7)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +2.3 · efficiency +2.3 · receptions +5.5 · touchdowns +9.0

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 13 vs 8.8/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.72 vs 0.54. This week's points: receptions 11.0, yardage 9.4, TDs 12.0, other 0.0.

DeMario Douglas WR, NE vs LV

FACT4/5 rec/tgt, 65 yds, 2 TD

22.5

PPR pts (std 18.5)

4.3

Avg before, Weeks 1-4 (n=4)

+18.2

PPR swing (std +16.5)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +0.4 · efficiency +4.1 · receptions +1.8 · touchdowns +12.0

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 5 vs 4.3/g; yardage points per opportunity 1.30 vs 0.48. This week's points: receptions 4.0, yardage 6.5; largest-play yardage 3.5 pts (long rec 35, long rush –), TDs 12.0, other 0.0.

Below their average

CeeDee Lamb WR, DAL vs TB

FACT2/5 rec/tgt, 9 yds

2.9

PPR pts (std 0.9)

28.1

Avg before, Weeks 1-4 (n=4)

-25.2

PPR swing (std -17.9)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -7.2 · efficiency -4.2 · receptions -7.3 · touchdowns -6.0 · other -0.5

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 5 vs 12.0/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.18 vs 1.03. This week's points: receptions 2.0, yardage 0.9, TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

Tyler Shough QB, NO vs MIN

FACT16/25, 96 pass yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-0.2

PPR pts (std -0.2)

21.3

Avg before, Weeks 1-4 (n=4)

-21.5

PPR swing (std -21.5)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -6.8 · efficiency -3.2 · touchdowns -10.5 · other -1.0

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 25 vs 49.0/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.15 vs 0.28. This week's points: receptions 0.0, yardage 3.8, TDs 0.0, other -4.0.

Nico Collins WR, HOU vs TEN

FACT5/7 rec/tgt, 56 yds

10.6

PPR pts (std 5.6)

26.0

Avg before, Weeks 1-4 (n=2)

-15.4

PPR swing (std -13.4)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -2.6 · efficiency -1.8 · receptions -2.0 · touchdowns -9.0

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 7 vs 9.5/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.80 vs 1.05. This week's points: receptions 5.0, yardage 5.6; largest-play yardage 2.0 pts (long rec 20, long rush –), TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

Chris Olave WR, NO vs MIN

FACT4/6 rec/tgt, 46 yds

8.6

PPR pts (std 4.6)

22.5

Avg before, Weeks 1-4 (n=4)

-13.9

PPR swing (std -9.2)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -6.1 · efficiency -1.5 · receptions -4.8 · touchdowns -1.5

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 6 vs 12.0/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.77 vs 1.02. This week's points: receptions 4.0, yardage 4.6, TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

Tee Higgins WR, CIN vs MIA

FACT2/4 rec/tgt, 22 yds

4.2

PPR pts (std 2.2)

17.8

Avg before, Weeks 1-4 (n=4)

-13.6

PPR swing (std -9.3)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -5.9 · efficiency -1.9 · receptions -4.3 · touchdowns -1.5

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 4 vs 9.8/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.55 vs 1.03. This week's points: receptions 2.0, yardage 2.2, TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

RJ Harvey RB, DEN vs LAC

FACT3 car, 7 yds; 0/1 rec/tgt, 0 yds

0.7

PPR pts (std 0.7)

12.7

Avg before, Weeks 1-4 (n=3)

-12.0

PPR swing (std -5.3)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -3.8 · efficiency -1.5 · receptions -6.7

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 4 vs 11.0/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.18 vs 0.55. This week's points: receptions 0.0, yardage 0.7, TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

Score autopsy: Drake Maye scored 39.5 PPR, +27.5 vs his average (4 games). Volume +2.1, efficiency +3.5, receptions +0.0, touchdowns +18.0, other +4.0.

Score autopsy: CeeDee Lamb scored 2.9 PPR, -25.2 vs his average (4 games). Volume -7.2, efficiency -4.2, receptions -7.3, touchdowns -6.0, other -0.5.

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Projection Audit · Weeks 4, 5

Projections as published before kickoff, against what happened

We store the projection exactly as it stood before each game and score it afterwards. Overall: 400 players, mean absolute error 5.92 PPR points, average error 0.08.

How this is measured

Projection: latest licensed weekly projection snapshot collected BEFORE the player's kickoff (collected_at shown)

Error: actual PPR points (house formula) minus projected PPR points

MAE / bias: mean absolute error; mean error (positive = players outscored projections)

Filter: players projected for 5+ PPR points; players who did not play are listed separately

Snapshot lead: 1.0 to 21.2 hours before kickoff

DERIVEDError by position

5.74

6.13

6.08

5.35

Pos	n	MAE	Bias	Median abs	Within 5
QB	62	5.74	-0.06	5.26	48%
RB	105	6.13	-0.21	5.01	50%
WR	168	6.08	+0.30	5.27	49%
TE	65	5.35	+0.10	4.46	54%

DERIVEDOutscored projection the most

Player	Wk	Proj	Actual	Error	Tgt proj/act	Car proj/act	Snapshot
Tetairoa McMillan WR CAR	W4	15.9	45.2	+29.4	7.9/16	–/0	2026-10-04T23:15
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL	W4	16.9	41.3	+24.4	8.8/21	0.1/1	2026-10-03T23:15
Kyren Williams RB LAR	W4	13.1	36.7	+23.6	3.1/13	12.2/16	2026-10-03T23:15
Tyquan Thornton WR KC	W4	5.1	28.1	+23.0	2.8/8	–/0	2026-10-03T23:15
Jaylen Warren RB PIT	W5	14.4	36.8	+22.4	4.1/6	13.2/15	2026-10-10T23:15
Drake Maye QB NE	W5	18.5	39.5	+21.0	–/0	6.0/7	2026-10-10T23:15

DERIVEDFell furthest short

Player	Wk	Proj	Actual	Error	Tgt proj/act	Car proj/act	Snapshot
Tyler Shough QB NO	W5	16.5	-0.2	-16.7	–/0	4.0/0	2026-10-10T23:15
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL	W5	19.2	2.9	-16.3	9.4/5	0.3/0	2026-10-08T23:15
Rashee Rice WR KC	W4	14.9	0.0	-14.9	7.4/0	0.3/0	2026-10-03T23:15
Ja'Marr Chase WR CIN	W4	20.4	5.7	-14.7	10.8/3	0.2/0	2026-10-03T23:15
Tyson Bagent QB CHI	W5	15.5	1.2	-14.3	–/0	3.9/3	2026-10-10T23:15
Parker Washington WR JAX	W4	15.3	2.0	-13.3	8.3/3	0.1/1	2026-10-03T23:15

FACTProjected but did not play (excluded from error): DJ Moore (BUF, 12.6), Jordan Addison (MIN, 11.3), Ladd McConkey (LAC, 10.5), Rico Dowdle (PIT, 7.9), Sterling Shepard (NYJ, 5.4), Jalen Coker (CAR, 13.1), Chris Moore (BAL, 5.4).

Projection audit: average miss in PPR points by position: QB 5.7 (n=62), RB 6.1 (n=105), WR 6.1 (n=168), TE 5.4 (n=65).

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Data: licensed league statistics feed and licensed weekly projections, observed 2026-10-13 12:00 UTC. Shares, baselines and decompositions are Wire Report calculations.

FACTreported or recorded data. DERIVEDour calculation, definition shown. INFERENCEinterpretation: associations, not causes.

Evidence, not advice: no rankings and no start or sit calls. Injury designations are attributed to the official report; we do not forecast health. Every page is checked by an independent editor before it publishes, and every correction is logged in public: corrections.