Fantasy evidence desk · NFL Week 6

Week 6: what changed, what the data shows, what is still unknown

Wire Report shows what changed, what the data proves happened the last time it changed, and what is still unknown, checked before it publishes.

Data through Week 6, heading into Week 7.

Editor gate PASS

255 of 255Claims checked (100%)

248Verified

7Flagged by the editor

0Could not be checked

Audited Oct 28, 2026, 05:12 UTC; data observed through 2026-10-28 04:00 UTC. Blocking findings: 0. The editor checks the full desk build for the week, which includes material not shown on this page; flags on this page are listed under each product. Audit record af6c3486107554c2.

Still unknown

Every with/without split, every baseline and every persistence call rests on a few games; samples are shown, not hidden.

FACTreported or recorded data. DERIVEDour calculation, definition shown. INFERENCEinterpretation: associations, not causes.

Opportunity Ledger · Week 6

Whose opportunity changed

Target and carry shares this week against each player's own trailing baseline (Weeks 3-5). Share separates a player's slice from the size of the team's pie.

How this is measured

Target share: player targets / all team player targets in the game

Baseline: pooled share over Weeks 3-5 games played for the same team (n shown)

Change: percentage points, this week minus baseline

Snap % / RZ: offensive snap share as reported (baseline in brackets); red-zone targets or carries = plays starting inside the opponent 20, player/team (derived from play-by-play)

Filter: RB/WR/TE; at least 2 baseline games for the same team; movers need 5+ targets (or carries) this week or per baseline game

DERIVEDTarget share up

Player	Tgt	Team tgt	Share	Base share	Δ pts	Base n	Snap %	RZ tgt
Christian McCaffrey RB SF	10	29	34.5%	15.9%	+18.6	3	85% (80%)	2/7
Dalton Kincaid TE BUFFACTDJ Moore (WR) has missed Weeks 5-6	8	30	26.7%	9.5%	+17.2	3	72% (65%)	4/7
DK Metcalf WR PIT	15	44	34.1%	18.0%	+16.1	3	95% (95%)	2/8
Colby Parkinson TE LAR	6	32	18.8%	2.9%	+15.8	2	62% (54%)	3/5
Germie Bernard WR PIT	12	44	27.3%	12.0%	+15.3	3	94% (53%)	3/8
Kendrick Bourne WR ARIFACTJeremiyah Love (RB) did not play in Week 6	8	34	23.5%	8.4%	+15.1	3	57% (56%)	3/7
Emeka Egbuka WR TB	16	41	39.0%	25.3%	+13.7	3	86% (86%)	1/2
DeMario Douglas WR NEFACTMack Hollins (WR) has missed Weeks 5-6 (IR)	8	30	26.7%	13.4%	+13.3	3	59% (51%)	1/6

DERIVEDTarget share down

Player	Tgt	Team tgt	Share	Base share	Δ pts	Base n	Snap %	RZ tgt
Garrett Wilson WR NYJFACTBreece Hall (RB) has missed Weeks 4-6; Adonai Mitchell (WR) has missed Weeks 3-6	6	29	20.7%	35.0%	-14.3	3	98% (96%)	1/3
Cade Otton TE TB	2	41	4.9%	18.4%	-13.5	3	100% (94%)	0/2
Puka Nacua WR LAR	7	32	21.9%	34.6%	-12.7	2	90% (88%)	0/5
Juwan Johnson TE NOFACTTravis Etienne Jr. (RB) has missed Weeks 4-6 (IR)	2	30	6.7%	18.9%	-12.3	3	58% (68%)	0/2
Mike Evans WR SF	5	29	17.2%	29.3%	-12.0	3	40% (52%)	0/7
Mark Andrews TE BAL	3	31	9.7%	21.2%	-11.6	3	72% (61%)	0/3
Darren Waller TE CAR	2	35	5.7%	17.3%	-11.6	2	46% (52%)	0/4
Dontayvion Wicks WR PHIFACTSaquon Barkley (RB) has missed Weeks 5-6	4	44	9.1%	20.7%	-11.6	3	62% (88%)	0/1

DERIVEDCarry share up

Player	Car	Team car	Share	Base share	Δ pts	Base n	Snap %	RZ car
Bam Knight RB ARIFACTJeremiyah Love (RB) did not play in Week 6	15	35	42.9%	1.4%	+41.4	3	–	4/8
Tyler Allgeier RB ARIFACTJeremiyah Love (RB) did not play in Week 6	18	35	51.4%	18.3%	+33.1	3	56% (45%)	4/8
Roschon Johnson RB CHIFACTKyle Monangai (RB) has missed Weeks 5-6	13	33	39.4%	8.0%	+31.4	3	40% (17%)	4/11
Jaleel McLaughlin RB CLEFACTQuinshon Judkins (RB) did not play in Week 6	9	29	31.0%	1.2%	+29.8	3	62% (10%)	0/3
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB NYG	6	20	30.0%	5.6%	+24.4	3	38% (13%)	2/3
Mike Washington Jr. RB LV	9	20	45.0%	21.1%	+23.9	3	35% (15%)	2/5
Isaiah Davis RB NYJFACTBreece Hall (RB) has missed Weeks 4-6; Adonai Mitchell (WR) has missed Weeks 3-6	7	27	25.9%	3.1%	+22.8	3	13% (7%)	3/4
Blake Corum RB LAR	9	20	45.0%	22.5%	+22.5	3	28% (24%)	2/2

DERIVEDCarry share down

Player	Car	Team car	Share	Base share	Δ pts	Base n	Snap %	RZ car
Kaleb Johnson RB GB	1	26	3.8%	31.7%	-27.8	3	5% (26%)	0/8
Bhayshul Tuten RB JAX	12	27	44.4%	64.3%	-19.8	3	58% (58%)	4/8
Keaton Mitchell RB LACFACTTre' Harris (WR) did not play in Week 6; David Njoku (TE) has missed Weeks 3-6 (IR)	2	22	9.1%	25.5%	-16.4	3	25% (36%)	0/1
Kyren Williams RB LAR	10	20	50.0%	66.2%	-16.2	3	72% (76%)	0/2
Brian Robinson Jr. RB ATL	2	12	16.7%	30.4%	-13.7	3	18% (30%)	1/2
Jaylen Warren RB PIT	14	22	63.6%	76.6%	-12.9	3	75% (91%)	1/2
Ashton Jeanty RB LV	10	20	50.0%	62.0%	-12.0	3	58% (68%)	3/5
Kenneth Walker III RB KCFACTRashee Rice (WR) did not play in Week 6	19	27	70.4%	81.6%	-11.3	2	74% (74%)	8/9

DERIVEDNot counted as role changes because he appears to have left the game early (snap evidence): Rashod Bateman (BAL): 30% of offensive snaps, after 80% in his previous game; Brycen Tremayne (CAR): 32% of offensive snaps, after 92% in his previous game; Isaiah Bond (CLE): 14% of offensive snaps, after 72% in his previous game; Romeo Doubs (NE): 3% of offensive snaps, after 83% in his previous game; Cam Skattebo (NYG): 8% of offensive snaps, after 63% in his previous game; Isaiah Williams (NYJ): 15% of offensive snaps, after 61% in his previous game; Terry McLaurin (WSH): 10% of offensive snaps, after 58% in his previous game.

FACTRecorded in the box score with zero targets and zero carries this week (not counted as movers; availability or an early exit is the first thing to check): Cam Skattebo (NYG, baseline 8% tgt / 57% car).

Week 6 opportunity: Christian McCaffrey drew 10 of SF's 29 targets (35%). Over Weeks 3-5 he had 16% of team targets (pooled, 3 games: 13 of 82). Change: +19 points.

Week 6 opportunity: Dalton Kincaid drew 8 of BUF's 30 targets (27%). Over Weeks 3-5 he had 10% of team targets (pooled, 3 games: 7 of 74). Change: +17 points.

Editor notes, still open.

Christian McCaffrey red-zone tgt: report 2/7, play-by-play recount 2/8 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)
Juwan Johnson red-zone tgt: report 0/2, play-by-play recount 0/3 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)
Keaton Mitchell red-zone car: report 0/1, play-by-play recount 0/2 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)
Kenneth Walker III red-zone car: report 8/9, play-by-play recount 7/8 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)
Mike Evans red-zone tgt: report 0/7, play-by-play recount 0/8 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)
Cam Skattebo: listed only as did-not-play; sources report a season-ending injury the report does not mention

Found an error on this page? Every correction is logged in public in the corrections log.

Absence Redistribution · Week 6

Where the work went when a starter sat

For each notable absence, teammates' shares in games without the player against games with him. Small samples are shown, not hidden.

How this is measured

Notable absence: RB/WR/TE whose team played in Week 6, who recorded no offensive snap or stat, and who held >= 15% of team targets or >= 35% of team carries in at least 2 earlier full games

With / without: pooled share over earlier FULL games the absent player played; pooled share over games the absent player missed (this week plus any earlier misses)

Partial games: a game he started but did not finish (injury or exit reported in that week, under half his usual snap share, or under 35% of his usual opportunity share) is its own bucket, excluded from both

Absence class: season-ending only when our reported-news layer holds an explicit season-ending report (two or more reports, or one wire.report article); injured reserve alone is multi-week; otherwise week-to-week

Status: attributed to the official designation; season-ending only when reported as such; we do not forecast recovery

Breece Hall RB, NYJweek-to-week

Has missed Weeks 4-6.

FACTOfficial status: out (Quadricep). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 19, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-3, n=3): 10.5% of team targets (10/95), 60.0% of team carries (51/85).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 31.7 targets, 28.3 carries. Without him (Weeks 4, 5, 6): 24.3 targets, 24.3 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Braelon Allen RB	5.3%	11.0%	+5.7	1.7	2.7	22.4%	75.3%	+53.0	3/3
Isaiah Davis RB	0.0%	4.1%	+4.1	0.0	1.0	0.0%	12.3%	+12.3	3/3
Isaiah Williams WR	9.5%	6.8%	-2.6	3.0	1.7	1.2%	2.7%	+1.6	3/3
Malik McClain WR	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/3
Jelani Woods TE	1.1%	4.1%	+3.1	0.3	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	3/3
Andrew Beck RB	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	3/3

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 3 full game(s) with and 3 without.

Quinshon Judkins RB, CLEweek-to-week

Missed Week 6.

FACTOfficial status: questionable (pre-game), then inactive; did not play (Ankle). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 19, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-5, n=5): 13.6% of team targets (20/147), 58.4% of team carries (73/125).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 29.4 targets, 25.0 carries. Without him (Weeks 6): 25.0 targets, 29.0 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Jaleel McLaughlin RB	1.6%	16.0%	+14.4	0.5	4.0	1.9%	31.0%	+29.1	4/1
KC Concepcion WR	19.7%	24.0%	+4.3	5.8	6.0	3.2%	6.9%	+3.7	5/1
Michael Burton RB	0.7%	4.0%	+3.3	0.2	1.0	0.0%	3.4%	+3.4	5/1
Denzel Boston WR	19.7%	20.0%	+0.3	5.8	5.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/1
Blake Whiteheart TE	2.0%	4.0%	+2.0	0.6	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/1
Harold Fannin Jr. TE	18.4%	12.0%	-6.4	5.4	3.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/1

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 5 full game(s) with and 1 without.

Jeremiyah Love RB, ARIweek-to-week

Missed Week 6.

FACTOfficial status: out (Ankle). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 19, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-5, n=5): 7.2% of team targets (14/194), 54.9% of team carries (67/122).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 38.8 targets, 24.4 carries. Without him (Weeks 6): 34.0 targets, 35.0 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Bam Knight RB	0.0%	5.9%	+5.9	0.0	2.0	2.5%	42.9%	+40.4	5/1
Tyler Allgeier RB	6.2%	5.9%	-0.3	2.4	2.0	28.7%	51.4%	+22.7	5/1
Kendrick Bourne WR	11.3%	23.5%	+12.2	4.4	8.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/1
Elijah Higgins TE	4.1%	8.8%	+4.7	1.6	3.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/1
Reggie Virgil WR	10.9%	0.0%	-10.9	5.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/1
Trey McBride TE	28.9%	26.5%	-2.4	11.2	9.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/1

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 5 full game(s) with and 1 without.

David Montgomery RB, HOUweek-to-week

Missed Week 6. Hurt in Week 5.

FACTOfficial status: out (Groin). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 19, 2026.

DERIVEDPartial game excluded from both buckets: Week 5 (14% of offensive snaps, after 56% in his previous game)

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-4, n=4): 5.1% of team targets (7/138), 52.2% of team carries (47/90).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 34.5 targets, 22.5 carries. Without him (Weeks 6): 32.0 targets, 25.0 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Woody Marks RB	6.5%	9.4%	+2.9	2.2	3.0	31.1%	60.0%	+28.9	4/1
Cade Stover TE	1.4%	0.0%	-1.4	0.5	0.0	0.0%	8.0%	+8.0	4/1
Nico Collins WR	28.6%	15.6%	-12.9	9.0	5.0	2.0%	4.0%	+2.0	2/1
Dalton Schultz TE	19.6%	18.8%	-0.8	6.8	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/1
Dare Ogunbowale RB	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/1
Foster Moreau TE	6.5%	6.2%	-0.3	2.2	2.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/1

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 4 full game(s) with and 1 without. Week 5 excluded from both (partial game).

Adonai Mitchell WR, NYJweek-to-week

Has missed Weeks 3-6.

FACTOfficial status: out (Finger). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 19, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-2, n=2): 25.4% of team targets (15/59), 0.0% of team carries (0/66).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 29.5 targets, 33.0 carries. Without him (Weeks 3, 4, 5, 6): 27.2 targets, 23.0 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Omar Cooper Jr. WR	4.3%	24.1%	+19.8	1.0	7.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/1
Mason Taylor TE	5.1%	15.5%	+10.4	1.5	4.5	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	2/2
Garrett Wilson WR	23.7%	31.2%	+7.5	7.0	8.5	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	2/4
Braelon Allen RB	3.4%	10.1%	+6.7	1.0	2.8	22.7%	64.1%	+41.4	2/4
Kenyon Sadiq TE	10.2%	16.5%	+6.3	3.0	4.5	1.5%	0.0%	-1.5	2/4
Jelani Woods TE	0.0%	3.7%	+3.7	0.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	2/4

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 2 full game(s) with and 4 without.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB, WSHmulti-week

Missed Week 6 (multi-week injury).

FACTOfficial status: IR (groin). Source: injured-reserve placement, as of Oct 19, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-5, n=5): 4.6% of team targets (7/151), 45.3% of team carries (67/148).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 30.2 targets, 29.6 carries. Without him (Weeks 6): 35.0 targets, 17.0 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Rachaad White RB	8.6%	14.3%	+5.7	2.5	5.0	23.0%	41.2%	+18.2	4/1
Terry McLaurin WR	22.4%	2.9%	-19.6	6.5	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/1
Dyami Brown WR	9.9%	2.9%	-7.1	3.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/1
Treylon Burks WR	9.0%	17.1%	+8.1	2.8	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/1
Colson Yankoff TE	2.6%	0.0%	-2.6	0.8	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/1
Ben Sinnott TE	1.3%	0.0%	-1.3	0.4	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/1

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 5 full game(s) with and 1 without.

Saquon Barkley RB, PHIweek-to-week

Has missed Weeks 5-6. Hurt in Week 4.

FACTOfficial status: out (Hamstring). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 19, 2026.

DERIVEDPartial game excluded from both buckets: Week 4 (7% of offensive snaps, after 72% in his previous game)

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-3, n=3): 7.3% of team targets (6/82), 44.7% of team carries (34/76).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 27.3 targets, 25.3 carries. Without him (Weeks 5, 6): 40.5 targets, 15.5 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Will Shipley RB	6.1%	5.4%	-0.7	1.7	2.0	11.8%	27.8%	+15.9	3/1
Elijah Moore WR	0.0%	2.5%	+2.5	0.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/2
Darius Cooper WR	3.7%	6.2%	+2.5	1.0	2.5	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	3/2
Dontayvion Wicks WR	18.3%	14.8%	-3.5	5.0	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	3/2
E.J. Jenkins TE	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	3/2
Zach Ertz TE	8.0%	5.4%	-2.6	2.0	2.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/1

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 3 full game(s) with and 2 without. Week 4 excluded from both (partial game).

Tyler Warren TE, INDweek-to-week

Missed Week 6.

FACTOfficial status: questionable (pre-game), then inactive; did not play (Groin). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 19, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-5, n=5): 21.7% of team targets (36/166), 2.2% of team carries (3/137).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 33.2 targets, 27.4 carries. Without him (Weeks 6): 38.0 targets, 30.0 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Keenan Allen WR	21.2%	28.9%	+7.8	7.2	11.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/1
Deion Burks WR	2.4%	5.3%	+2.9	0.8	2.0	1.5%	3.3%	+1.9	5/1
Laquon Treadwell WR	11.4%	13.2%	+1.7	3.8	5.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/1
Mo Alie-Cox TE	1.8%	2.6%	+0.8	0.6	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/1
Josh Downs WR	20.5%	21.1%	+0.6	6.8	8.0	0.0%	3.3%	+3.3	5/1
Anthony Gould WR	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/1

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 5 full game(s) with and 1 without.

Breece Hall has missed Weeks 4-6 (listed Out, quadricep on the injury report). Braelon Allen: 22% of NYJ carries in 3 full games with Breece Hall, 75% in 3 without. Isaiah Davis: 0% of NYJ carries in 3 full games with Breece Hall, 12% in 3 without. Isaiah Williams: 1% of NYJ carries in 3 full games with Breece Hall, 3% in 3 without.

Jeremiyah Love missed Week 6 (listed Out, ankle on the injury report). Bam Knight: 3% of ARI carries in 5 full games with Jeremiyah Love, 43% in 1 without. Tyler Allgeier: 29% of ARI carries in 5 full games with Jeremiyah Love, 51% in 1 without. Kendrick Bourne: 0% of ARI carries in 5 full games with Jeremiyah Love, 0% in 1 without.

Quinshon Judkins missed Week 6 (listed Questionable (Pre-Game), Then Inactive; Did Not Play, ankle on the injury report). Jaleel McLaughlin: 2% of CLE carries in 4 full games with Quinshon Judkins, 31% in 1 without. KC Concepcion: 3% of CLE carries in 5 full games with Quinshon Judkins, 7% in 1 without. Michael Burton: 0% of CLE carries in 5 full games with Quinshon Judkins, 3% in 1 without.

Editor notes, still open.

Quinshon Judkins: shown as 'questionable' (pre-game designation) but he was inactive / did not play Week 6; the outcome is not stated
Tyler Warren: shown as 'questionable' (pre-game designation) but he was inactive / did not play Week 6; the outcome is not stated

Found an error on this page? Every correction is logged in public in the corrections log.

Role Persistence Audit · Week 5 → Week 6

Did last week's change hold?

Every role change we flag gets a follow-up. Week 5 movers, checked against Week 6. Tally: held: 4, partial: 2, reversed: 4, unresolved: 2.

How this is measured

Claim record: before (baseline) / trigger (flag week) / after (follow-up week) / status, each with a stable claim ID and version

Mover: share change of 8+ percentage points in Week 5 vs Weeks 2-4 (same rules as the Opportunity Ledger)

Status rule: held: same direction and >= 50% of the trigger change; reversed: opposite direction or < 25%; partial: in between

Provenance: This first audit is RETROACTIVE: claims were reconstructed by the same rule from Week 5 data, not published at the time.

Player	Metric	Before	Trigger (Δ)	After	Status	Claim
Kendre Miller RB NO	carry share	21.3% n=2	58.8% +37.5	52.6%	held	FD-e00a81c369 v1
Braelon Allen RB NYJ	carry share	38.3% n=3	75.0% +36.7	63.0%	held	FD-5f05bb6c0a v1
Chase Brown RB CIN	carry share	75.0% n=3	41.9% -33.1	team had a bye or game not final	unresolved	FD-b752823402 v1
Samaje Perine RB CIN	carry share	14.3% n=3	45.2% +30.9	team had a bye or game not final	unresolved	FD-f07477eee2 v1
TreVeyon Henderson RB NE	carry share	42.7% n=3	12.9% -29.8	19.4%	held	FD-e8e0bebc54 v1
Javonte Williams RB DAL	carry share	65.8% n=3	92.3% +26.5	73.3%	partial	FD-683afa5fcb v1
Bhayshul Tuten RB JAX	carry share	55.6% n=3	81.5% +25.9	44.4%	reversed	FD-91da674aad v1
Woody Marks RB HOU	carry share	32.8% n=3	55.6% +22.8	60.0%	held	FD-8f54d62dbb v1
Tyjae Spears RB TEN	target share	3.8% n=3	25.7% +22.0	4.5%	reversed	FD-bf54de78af v1
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL	target share	33.3% n=3	11.9% -21.4	33.3%	reversed	FD-d529f23e5f v1
Emanuel Wilson RB SEA	carry share	56.0% n=3	76.9% +20.9	53.8%	reversed	FD-53f810ed1b v1
RJ Harvey RB DEN	target share	24.6% n=2	4.5% -20.1	16.7%	partial	FD-18916de8f6 v1

DERIVEDNot flagged as role changes because the trigger game was a partial game: KC Concepcion (CLE, target share, Week 5: 16% of offensive snaps, after 92% in his previous game); T.J. Hockenson (MIN, target share, Week 5: 3% of offensive snaps, after 83% in his previous game); David Montgomery (HOU, carry share, Week 5: 14% of offensive snaps, after 56% in his previous game)

Week 5 role changes, checked in Week 6: 4 held, 2 partial, 4 reversed, 2 unresolved.

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Fantasy Score Autopsy · Week 6

The week's biggest swings, in arithmetic

How far each player moved from his own season average, split into volume, efficiency, receptions, touchdowns and everything else. The parts add up to the swing.

How this is measured

Scoring: Standard: 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing TD, -2 per interception, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per rushing or receiving TD, -2 per fumble lost, 2 per two-point conversion, 6 per return TD. PPR adds 1 per reception.

Swing: Week points minus the player's average points per game in earlier games this season

Volume: (opportunities now - baseline opportunities per game) x baseline yardage points per opportunity

Efficiency: change in yardage points (0.04 per passing yard, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard) not explained by volume

Touchdowns: change in touchdown points

Other: interceptions, fumbles lost, two-point conversions

Big play: this week's yardage points from the longest rush and longest reception when 20+ yards

volumeefficiencyreceptionstouchdownsother(faded = negative)

Above their average

Germie Bernard WR, PIT vs TB

FACT11/12 rec/tgt, 87 yds, 1 TD

25.7

PPR pts (std 14.7)

5.1

Avg before, Weeks 1-5 (n=5)

+20.6

PPR swing (std +12.2)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +5.3 · efficiency +0.5 · receptions +8.4 · touchdowns +6.0 · other +0.4

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 12 vs 4.2/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.73 vs 0.69. This week's points: receptions 11.0, yardage 8.7, TDs 6.0, other 0.0.

Kyle Pitts Sr. TE, ATL vs CHI

FACT5/7 rec/tgt, 60 yds, 2 TD

23.0

PPR pts (std 18.0)

5.4

Avg before, Weeks 1-5 (n=5)

+17.6

PPR swing (std +14.6)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +2.9 · efficiency +0.9 · receptions +3.0 · touchdowns +10.8

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 7 vs 3.0/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.86 vs 0.73. This week's points: receptions 5.0, yardage 6.0; largest-play yardage 2.9 pts (long rec 29, long rush –), TDs 12.0, other 0.0.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB, NYG vs NO

FACT6 car, 18 yds, 1 TD; 2/3 rec/tgt, 27 yds, 1 TD

18.5

PPR pts (std 16.5)

0.9

Avg before, Weeks 1-5 (n=5)

+17.6

PPR swing (std +16.0)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +3.3 · efficiency +0.3 · receptions +1.6 · touchdowns +12.0 · other +0.4

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 9 vs 2.0/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.50 vs 0.47. This week's points: receptions 2.0, yardage 4.5, TDs 12.0, other 0.0.

Tre Tucker WR, LV vs BUF

FACT5/7 rec/tgt, 97 yds, 2 TD

26.7

PPR pts (std 21.7)

10.4

Avg before, Weeks 1-5 (n=5)

+16.3

PPR swing (std +15.1)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +0.9 · efficiency +3.4 · receptions +1.2 · touchdowns +10.8

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 7 vs 6.0/g; yardage points per opportunity 1.39 vs 0.89. This week's points: receptions 5.0, yardage 9.7; largest-play yardage 4.4 pts (long rec 44, long rush –), TDs 12.0, other 0.0.

Tommy Tremble TE, CAR vs PHI

FACT4/4 rec/tgt, 46 yds, 2 TD

20.6

PPR pts (std 16.6)

4.8

Avg before, Weeks 1-4 (n=4)

+15.8

PPR swing (std +14.6)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +0.1 · efficiency +2.4 · receptions +1.3 · touchdowns +12.0

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 4 vs 3.8/g; yardage points per opportunity 1.15 vs 0.55. This week's points: receptions 4.0, yardage 4.6, TDs 12.0, other 0.0.

Travis Hunter WR, JAX vs HOU

FACT4/4 rec/tgt, 59 yds, 1 TD

15.9

PPR pts (std 11.9)

0.8

Avg before, Weeks 1-5 (n=5)

+15.1

PPR swing (std +11.5)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +2.3 · efficiency +3.2 · receptions +3.6 · touchdowns +6.0

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 4 vs 0.6/g; yardage points per opportunity 1.48 vs 0.67. This week's points: receptions 4.0, yardage 5.9; largest-play yardage 2.6 pts (long rec 26, long rush –), TDs 6.0, other 0.0.

Below their average

Derrick Henry RB, BAL vs CLE

FACT17 car, 58 yds; 1/1 rec/tgt, 2 yds

5.0

PPR pts (std 4.0)

22.4

Avg before, Weeks 1-5 (n=5)

-17.4

PPR swing (std -16.8)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -2.8 · efficiency -2.0 · receptions -0.6 · touchdowns -9.6 · other -2.4

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 18 vs 24.4/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.33 vs 0.44. This week's points: receptions 1.0, yardage 6.0, TDs 0.0, other -2.0.

Bijan Robinson RB, ATL vs CHI

FACT9 car, 61 yds; 2/2 rec/tgt, -8 yds

7.3

PPR pts (std 5.3)

24.2

Avg before, Weeks 1-5 (n=5)

-16.9

PPR swing (std -15.3)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -8.3 · efficiency -1.0 · receptions -1.6 · touchdowns -6.0

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 11 vs 25.4/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.48 vs 0.58. This week's points: receptions 2.0, yardage 5.3; largest-play yardage 2.3 pts (long rec -3, long rush 23), TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

Juwan Johnson TE, NO vs NYG

FACT0/2 rec/tgt, 0 yds

0.0

PPR pts (std 0.0)

13.2

Avg before, Weeks 1-5 (n=5)

-13.2

PPR swing (std -8.2)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -3.4 · efficiency -1.6 · receptions -5.0 · touchdowns -3.6 · other +0.4

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 2 vs 6.4/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.00 vs 0.78. This week's points: receptions 0.0, yardage 0.0, TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

Brock Bowers TE, LV vs BUF

FACT4/9 rec/tgt, 70 yds

11.0

PPR pts (std 7.0)

23.7

Avg before, Weeks 3-5 (n=3)

-12.7

PPR swing (std -8.7)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -2.4 · efficiency -1.0 · receptions -4.0 · touchdowns -6.0 · other +0.7

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 9 vs 11.7/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.78 vs 0.89. This week's points: receptions 4.0, yardage 7.0; largest-play yardage 2.9 pts (long rec 29, long rush –), TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

Christian Watson WR, GB vs DAL

FACT3/8 rec/tgt, 64 yds

9.4

PPR pts (std 6.4)

21.9

Avg before, Weeks 1-5 (n=5)

-12.5

PPR swing (std -10.3)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

efficiency -3.1 · receptions -2.2 · touchdowns -7.2

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 8 vs 8.0/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.80 vs 1.19. This week's points: receptions 3.0, yardage 6.4; largest-play yardage 2.8 pts (long rec 28, long rush –), TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

Kyren Williams RB, LAR vs ARI

FACT10 car, 50 yds; 3/6 rec/tgt, 17 yds

9.7

PPR pts (std 6.7)

21.9

Avg before, Weeks 1-5 (n=5)

-12.2

PPR swing (std -9.8)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -2.5 · efficiency -1.7 · receptions -2.4 · touchdowns -6.0 · other +0.4

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 16 vs 20.6/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.42 vs 0.53. This week's points: receptions 3.0, yardage 6.7, TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

Score autopsy: Germie Bernard scored 25.7 PPR, +20.6 vs his average (5 games). Volume +5.4, efficiency +0.5, receptions +8.4, touchdowns +6.0, other +0.4.

Score autopsy: Derrick Henry scored 5.0 PPR, -17.4 vs his average (5 games). Volume -2.8, efficiency -1.9, receptions -0.6, touchdowns -9.6, other -2.4.

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Projection Audit · Weeks 5, 6

Projections as published before kickoff, against what happened

We store the projection exactly as it stood before each game and score it afterwards. Overall: 363 players, mean absolute error 5.65 PPR points, average error -0.38.

How this is measured

Projection: latest licensed weekly projection snapshot collected BEFORE the player's kickoff (collected_at shown)

Error: actual PPR points (house formula) minus projected PPR points

MAE / bias: mean absolute error; mean error (positive = players outscored projections)

Filter: players projected for 5+ PPR points; players who did not play are listed separately

Snapshot lead: 1.0 to 132.0 hours before kickoff

DERIVEDError by position

5.90

5.59

5.53

5.80

Pos	n	MAE	Bias	Median abs	Within 5
QB	56	5.90	+0.23	5.52	46%
RB	97	5.59	-1.31	4.96	52%
WR	149	5.53	-0.12	4.74	52%
TE	61	5.80	-0.09	5.69	48%

DERIVEDOutscored projection the most

Player	Wk	Proj	Actual	Error	Tgt proj/act	Car proj/act	Snapshot
Jaylen Warren RB PIT	W5	14.4	36.8	+22.4	4.1/6	13.2/15	2026-10-10T23:15
Drake Maye QB NE	W5	18.5	39.5	+21.0	–/0	6.0/7	2026-10-10T23:15
Isaiah Likely TE NYG	W5	12.9	32.4	+19.5	7.9/13	–/0	2026-10-10T23:15
Christian Watson WR GB	W5	13.8	32.3	+18.5	8.0/8	–/0	2026-10-10T23:15
Tre Tucker WR LV	W6	10.4	26.7	+16.3	5.3/7	0.5/0	2026-10-14T12:15
Bucky Irving RB TB	W5	15.2	31.5	+16.3	3.1/3	17.0/21	2026-10-08T23:15

DERIVEDFell furthest short

Player	Wk	Proj	Actual	Error	Tgt proj/act	Car proj/act	Snapshot
Tyler Shough QB NO	W5	16.5	-0.2	-16.7	–/0	4.0/0	2026-10-10T23:15
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL	W5	19.2	2.9	-16.3	9.4/5	0.3/0	2026-10-08T23:15
Bijan Robinson RB ATL	W6	23.1	7.3	-15.8	4.5/2	20.1/9	2026-10-14T12:15
Derrick Henry RB BAL	W6	20.6	5.0	-15.6	1.8/1	22.8/17	2026-10-14T12:15
Tyson Bagent QB CHI	W5	15.5	1.2	-14.3	–/0	3.9/3	2026-10-10T23:15
Cam Skattebo RB NYG	W6	13.2	0.0	-13.2	2.2/0	17.2/0	2026-10-14T12:15

FACTProjected but did not play (excluded from error): DJ Moore (BUF, 12.6), Jordan Addison (MIN, 11.3), Ladd McConkey (LAC, 10.5), Rico Dowdle (PIT, 7.9), Sterling Shepard (NYJ, 5.4), Lamar Jackson (BAL, 19.3), Jalen Hurts (PHI, 17.8), Rashee Rice (KC, 14.4), Breece Hall (NYJ, 14.0), Saquon Barkley (PHI, 13.8), DJ Moore (BUF, 13.5), Quinshon Judkins (CLE, 13.3).

Projection audit: average miss in PPR points by position: QB 5.9 (n=56), RB 5.6 (n=97), WR 5.5 (n=149), TE 5.8 (n=61).

Editor notes, still open.

Jalen Hurts: listed only as did-not-play; sources report a season-ending injury the report does not mention

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Data: licensed league statistics feed and licensed weekly projections, observed 2026-10-28 04:00 UTC. Shares, baselines and decompositions are Wire Report calculations.

FACTreported or recorded data. DERIVEDour calculation, definition shown. INFERENCEinterpretation: associations, not causes.

Evidence, not advice: no rankings and no start or sit calls. Injury designations are attributed to the official report; we do not forecast health. Every page is checked by an independent editor before it publishes, and every correction is logged in public: corrections.