Fantasy evidence desk · NFL Week 7

Week 7: what changed, what the data shows, what is still unknown

Wire Report shows what changed, what the data proves happened the last time it changed, and what is still unknown, checked before it publishes.

Data through Week 7, heading into Week 8.

Editor gate PASS

264 of 265Claims checked (99%)

258Verified

6Flagged by the editor

1Could not be checked

Audited Oct 28, 2026, 05:21 UTC; data observed through 2026-10-28 04:00 UTC. Blocking findings: 0. The editor checks the full desk build for the week, which includes material not shown on this page; flags on this page are listed under each product. Audit record a7c1a9c7bb2db198.

Still unknown

1 of 265 claims in this build could not be checked against the underlying data.
Every with/without split, every baseline and every persistence call rests on a few games; samples are shown, not hidden.

FACTreported or recorded data. DERIVEDour calculation, definition shown. INFERENCEinterpretation: associations, not causes.

Opportunity Ledger · Week 7

Whose opportunity changed

Target and carry shares this week against each player's own trailing baseline (Weeks 4-6). Share separates a player's slice from the size of the team's pie.

How this is measured

Target share: player targets / all team player targets in the game

Baseline: pooled share over Weeks 4-6 games played for the same team (n shown)

Change: percentage points, this week minus baseline

Snap % / RZ: offensive snap share as reported (baseline in brackets); red-zone targets or carries = plays starting inside the opponent 20, player/team (derived from play-by-play)

Filter: RB/WR/TE; at least 2 baseline games for the same team; movers need 5+ targets (or carries) this week or per baseline game

DERIVEDTarget share up

Player	Tgt	Team tgt	Share	Base share	Δ pts	Base n	Snap %	RZ tgt
Chris Godwin Jr. WR TBFACTEmeka Egbuka (WR) did not play in Week 7	5	11	45.5%	19.6%	+25.9	3	73% (90%)	2/6
Colston Loveland TE CHIFACTKyle Monangai (RB) has missed Weeks 5-7	12	30	40.0%	20.2%	+19.8	3	84% (87%)	1/2
Elic Ayomanor WR TEN	7	30	23.3%	5.9%	+17.5	3	89% (58%)	2/7
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL	12	26	46.2%	31.7%	+14.5	3	81% (77%)	4/6
Davis Allen TE LARFACTDavante Adams (WR) has missed Week 7 (IR)	5	29	17.2%	2.9%	+14.3	3	69% (43%)	3/6
Jordan Watkins WR SFFACTMike Evans (WR) did not play in Week 7	6	39	15.4%	1.2%	+14.2	3	76% (50%)	0/3
Jameson Williams WR DET	9	31	29.0%	15.0%	+14.0	2	84% (94%)	4/7
Braelon Allen RB NYJFACTBreece Hall (RB) has missed Weeks 4-7	7	29	24.1%	11.0%	+13.2	3	78% (89%)	1/8

DERIVEDTarget share down

Player	Tgt	Team tgt	Share	Base share	Δ pts	Base n	Snap %	RZ tgt
Garrett Wilson WR NYJFACTBreece Hall (RB) has missed Weeks 4-7	3	29	10.3%	28.8%	-18.4	3	85% (97%)	0/8
Sam LaPorta TE DET	2	31	6.5%	22.5%	-16.0	2	97% (84%)	1/7
Malik Washington WR MIAFACTDe'Von Achane (RB) has been out for the season since Week 3 (season-ending, knee, per reports)	3	21	14.3%	30.2%	-15.9	2	80% (84%)	0/2
Isaiah Likely TE NYG	4	27	14.8%	29.0%	-14.2	3	86% (79%)	–
Quinshon Judkins RB CLE	1	35	2.9%	16.9%	-14.1	2	53% (60%)	0/2
Tetairoa McMillan WR CAR	6	29	20.7%	33.8%	-13.1	2	68% (83%)	0/2
Kyren Williams RB LARFACTDavante Adams (WR) has missed Week 7 (IR)	2	29	6.9%	19.9%	-13.0	3	51% (76%)	0/6
Keenan Allen WR INDFACTTyler Warren (TE) has missed Weeks 6-7	3	21	14.3%	24.7%	-10.4	2	49% (58%)	0/1

DERIVEDCarry share up

Player	Car	Team car	Share	Base share	Δ pts	Base n	Snap %	RZ car
D'Andre Swift RB CHIFACTKyle Monangai (RB) has missed Weeks 5-7	22	30	73.3%	36.0%	+37.3	3	86% (50%)	2/4
Kaelon Black RB SFFACTMike Evans (WR) did not play in Week 7	12	23	52.2%	22.7%	+29.4	3	47% (22%)	3/4
Woody Marks RB HOUFACTDavid Montgomery (RB) has missed Weeks 6-7	19	25	76.0%	50.7%	+25.3	3	89% (69%)	2/4
Kenny Gainwell RB TBFACTEmeka Egbuka (WR) did not play in Week 7	14	49	28.6%	9.5%	+19.1	3	30% (31%)	1/11
Tyler Goodson RB DAL	10	38	26.3%	9.4%	+16.9	3	21% (13%)	4/12
Blake Corum RB LARFACTDavante Adams (WR) has missed Week 7 (IR)	17	38	44.7%	27.9%	+16.8	3	44% (23%)	6/10
Seth McGowan RB INDFACTTyler Warren (TE) has missed Weeks 6-7	11	33	33.3%	17.9%	+15.5	3	33% (26%)	1/3
Alvin Kamara RB NOFACTTravis Etienne Jr. (RB) has missed Weeks 4-7 (IR)	6	17	35.3%	23.0%	+12.3	3	56% (30%)	2/6

DERIVEDCarry share down

Player	Car	Team car	Share	Base share	Δ pts	Base n	Snap %	RZ car
Chuba Hubbard RB CAR	7	18	38.9%	78.7%	-39.8	2	61% (89%)	0/3
Kyren Williams RB LARFACTDavante Adams (WR) has missed Week 7 (IR)	16	38	42.1%	61.8%	-19.7	3	51% (76%)	3/10
Dameon Pierce RB PHIFACTDeVonta Smith (WR) did not play in Week 7; Dontayvion Wicks (WR) did not play in Week 7	14	25	56.0%	74.2%	-18.2	2	64% (86%)	5/8
Christian McCaffrey RB SFFACTMike Evans (WR) did not play in Week 7	7	23	30.4%	47.7%	-17.3	3	52% (80%)	1/4
Javonte Williams RB DAL	25	38	65.8%	79.2%	-13.5	3	65% (77%)	7/12
Jaylen Warren RB PIT	18	30	60.0%	73.0%	-13.0	3	62% (86%)	3/8
Jonathan Taylor RB INDFACTTyler Warren (TE) has missed Weeks 6-7	18	33	54.5%	66.7%	-12.1	3	67% (74%)	1/3
Bucky Irving RB TBFACTEmeka Egbuka (WR) did not play in Week 7	24	49	49.0%	58.9%	-10.0	3	59% (66%)	7/11

DERIVEDNot counted as role changes because he appears to have left the game early (snap evidence): Roschon Johnson (CHI): 14% of offensive snaps, after 40% in his previous game; Samaje Perine (CIN): 23% of offensive snaps, after 51% in his previous game; Jaleel McLaughlin (CLE): 0% of offensive snaps, after 62% in his previous game; J.K. Dobbins (DEN): 23% of offensive snaps, after 52% in his previous game; Pierre Strong Jr. (GB): 12% of offensive snaps, after 55% in his previous game; Kevin Coleman Jr. (MIA): 15% of offensive snaps, after 64% in his previous game; Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN): 25% of offensive snaps, after 87% in his previous game; Tim Patrick (NYJ): 12% of offensive snaps, after 69% in his previous game.

FACTRecorded in the box score with zero targets and zero carries this week (not counted as movers; availability or an early exit is the first thing to check): Pierre Strong Jr. (GB, baseline 14% tgt / 31% car).

Week 7 opportunity: Chris Godwin Jr. drew 5 of TB's 11 targets (46%). Over Weeks 4-6 he had 20% of team targets (pooled, 3 games: 18 of 92). Change: +26 points.

Week 7 opportunity: Colston Loveland drew 12 of CHI's 30 targets (40%). Over Weeks 4-6 he had 20% of team targets (pooled, 3 games: 21 of 104). Change: +20 points.

Editor notes, still open.

Chris Godwin Jr. red-zone tgt: report 2/6, play-by-play recount 2/7 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)
Davis Allen red-zone tgt: report 3/6, play-by-play recount 3/7 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)
Jameson Williams red-zone tgt: report 4/7, play-by-play recount 3/7 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)
Kyren Williams red-zone tgt: report 0/6, play-by-play recount 0/7 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)
Tetairoa McMillan red-zone tgt: report 0/2, play-by-play recount 0/1 (definition-sensitive: penalties/scrambles)

Found an error on this page? Every correction is logged in public in the corrections log.

Absence Redistribution · Week 7

Where the work went when a starter sat

For each notable absence, teammates' shares in games without the player against games with him. Small samples are shown, not hidden.

How this is measured

Notable absence: RB/WR/TE whose team played in Week 7, who recorded no offensive snap or stat, and who held >= 15% of team targets or >= 35% of team carries in at least 2 earlier full games

With / without: pooled share over earlier FULL games the absent player played; pooled share over games the absent player missed (this week plus any earlier misses)

Partial games: a game he started but did not finish (injury or exit reported in that week, under half his usual snap share, or under 35% of his usual opportunity share) is its own bucket, excluded from both

Absence class: season-ending only when our reported-news layer holds an explicit season-ending report (two or more reports, or one wire.report article); injured reserve alone is multi-week; otherwise week-to-week

Status: attributed to the official designation; season-ending only when reported as such; we do not forecast recovery

De'Von Achane RB, MIAseason-ending

Out for the season since Week 3.

FACTOfficial status: IR (knee). Source: injured-reserve placement, as of Sep 28, 2026.

FACTReported: season-ending torn ACL, per reports (8 reports in our news store)

DERIVEDPartial game excluded from both buckets: Week 3 (5% of offensive snaps; 3 touches vs 19 before)

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-2, n=2): 22.0% of team targets (11/50), 67.4% of team carries (31/46).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 25.0 targets, 23.0 carries. Without him (Weeks 4, 5, 7): 21.3 targets, 31.0 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Ollie Gordon II RB	0.0%	7.8%	+7.8	0.0	1.7	6.5%	55.9%	+49.4	2/3
Jaylen Wright RB	0.0%	1.6%	+1.6	0.0	0.3	6.5%	18.3%	+11.8	2/3
Malik Washington WR	26.0%	25.0%	-1.0	6.5	5.3	2.2%	5.4%	+3.2	2/3
Chris Bell WR	6.0%	14.1%	+8.1	1.5	3.0	0.0%	1.1%	+1.1	2/3
Will Kacmarek TE	4.0%	6.2%	+2.2	1.0	1.3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	2/3
Greg Dulcich TE	10.0%	15.6%	+5.6	2.5	3.3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	2/3

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 2 full game(s) with and 3 without. Week 3 excluded from both (partial game).

DeVonta Smith WR, PHIweek-to-week

Missed Week 7.

FACTOfficial status: out (Hamstring). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 28, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1, 2, 3, 6, n=4): 32.5% of team targets (41/126), 0.0% of team carries (0/89).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 31.5 targets, 22.2 carries. Without him (Weeks 4, 5, 7): 31.7 targets, 23.3 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Hollywood Brown WR	0.0%	15.2%	+15.2	0.0	5.0	6.2%	0.0%	-6.2	1/1
Makai Lemon WR	11.9%	22.1%	+10.2	3.8	7.0	1.1%	0.0%	-1.1	4/3
Darius Cooper WR	4.0%	13.7%	+9.7	1.2	4.3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/3
Dallas Goedert TE	15.8%	22.9%	+7.0	5.3	8.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	3/2
Dontayvion Wicks WR	15.1%	21.0%	+5.9	4.8	6.5	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/2
Zach Ertz TE	8.0%	9.7%	+1.7	2.0	3.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/2

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 4 full game(s) with and 3 without.

Breece Hall RB, NYJweek-to-week

Has missed Weeks 4-7.

FACTOfficial status: questionable (pre-game), then inactive; did not play (Quadricep). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 26, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-3, n=3): 10.5% of team targets (10/95), 60.0% of team carries (51/85).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 31.7 targets, 28.3 carries. Without him (Weeks 4, 5, 6, 7): 25.5 targets, 23.5 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Braelon Allen RB	5.3%	14.7%	+9.4	1.7	3.8	22.4%	76.6%	+54.2	3/4
Isaiah Davis RB	0.0%	5.9%	+5.9	0.0	1.5	0.0%	10.6%	+10.6	3/4
Andrew Beck RB	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	1.1%	+1.1	3/4
Isaiah Williams WR	9.5%	4.9%	-4.6	3.0	1.2	1.2%	2.1%	+1.0	3/4
Malik McClain WR	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/4
Jelani Woods TE	1.1%	3.9%	+2.9	0.3	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	3/4

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 3 full game(s) with and 4 without.

Jeremiyah Love RB, ARIweek-to-week

Has missed Weeks 6-7.

FACTOfficial status: out (Ankle). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 26, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-5, n=5): 7.2% of team targets (14/194), 54.9% of team carries (67/122).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 38.8 targets, 24.4 carries. Without him (Weeks 6, 7): 39.0 targets, 29.5 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Bam Knight RB	0.0%	9.0%	+9.0	0.0	3.5	2.5%	37.3%	+34.8	5/2
Tyler Allgeier RB	6.2%	6.4%	+0.2	2.4	2.5	28.7%	44.1%	+15.4	5/2
Michael Wilson WR	26.3%	19.2%	-7.1	10.2	7.5	0.0%	3.4%	+3.4	5/2
Kendrick Bourne WR	11.3%	17.9%	+6.6	4.4	7.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/2
Elijah Higgins TE	4.1%	7.7%	+3.6	1.6	3.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/2
Reggie Virgil WR	10.9%	0.0%	-10.9	5.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/2

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 5 full game(s) with and 2 without.

David Montgomery RB, HOUweek-to-week

Has missed Weeks 6-7. Hurt in Week 5.

FACTOfficial status: out (Groin). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 26, 2026.

DERIVEDPartial game excluded from both buckets: Week 5 (14% of offensive snaps, after 56% in his previous game)

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-4, n=4): 5.1% of team targets (7/138), 52.2% of team carries (47/90).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 34.5 targets, 22.5 carries. Without him (Weeks 6, 7): 30.0 targets, 25.0 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Woody Marks RB	6.5%	6.7%	+0.1	2.2	2.0	31.1%	68.0%	+36.9	4/2
Cade Stover TE	1.4%	1.7%	+0.2	0.5	0.5	0.0%	6.0%	+6.0	4/2
Xavier Hutchinson WR	18.8%	15.0%	-3.8	6.5	4.5	2.2%	4.0%	+1.8	4/2
Dalton Schultz TE	19.6%	20.0%	+0.4	6.8	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/2
Dare Ogunbowale RB	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	1/2
Foster Moreau TE	6.5%	3.3%	-3.2	2.2	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/2

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 4 full game(s) with and 2 without. Week 5 excluded from both (partial game).

Emeka Egbuka WR, TBweek-to-week

Missed Week 7.

FACTOfficial status: out (Concussion, Foot). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 26, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-6, n=6): 26.1% of team targets (49/188), 1.2% of team carries (2/161).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 31.3 targets, 26.8 carries. Without him (Weeks 7): 11.0 targets, 49.0 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Chris Godwin Jr. WR	15.4%	45.5%	+30.0	4.8	5.0	1.9%	0.0%	-1.9	6/1
Tez Johnson WR	6.9%	18.2%	+11.3	2.2	2.0	1.2%	2.0%	+0.8	6/1
Bucky Irving RB	11.2%	18.2%	+7.0	3.5	2.0	59.6%	49.0%	-10.6	6/1
Sean Tucker RB	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	6.9%	14.3%	+7.4	4/1
Ko Kieft TE	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/1
Bauer Sharp TE	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	6/1

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 6 full game(s) with and 1 without.

Mike Evans WR, SFweek-to-week

Missed Week 7.

FACTOfficial status: out (Ribs, Achilles). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 26, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-6, n=6): 23.6% of team targets (39/165), 0.0% of team carries (0/168).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 27.5 targets, 28.0 carries. Without him (Weeks 7): 39.0 targets, 23.0 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Jordan Watkins WR	2.7%	15.4%	+12.7	0.8	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/1
Jacob Cowing WR	3.0%	12.8%	+9.8	0.8	5.0	0.6%	4.3%	+3.8	6/1
Kaelon Black RB	1.8%	7.7%	+5.9	0.5	3.0	26.8%	52.2%	+25.4	6/1
George Kittle TE	21.8%	25.6%	+3.8	6.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	6/1
Jordan James RB	0.0%	2.6%	+2.6	0.0	1.0	3.9%	4.3%	+0.5	4/1
Kyle Juszczyk RB	5.8%	7.7%	+1.9	1.6	3.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/1

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 6 full game(s) with and 1 without.

Tyler Warren TE, INDweek-to-week

Has missed Weeks 6-7.

FACTOfficial status: out (Groin). Source: official game-status designation (league injury report), as of Oct 26, 2026.

DERIVEDRole in full games played (Weeks 1-5, n=5): 21.7% of team targets (36/166), 2.2% of team carries (3/137).

DERIVEDTeam volume per game with him: 33.2 targets, 27.4 carries. Without him (Weeks 6, 7): 29.5 targets, 31.5 carries.

Teammate	Tgt% with	Tgt% w/o	Δ	Tgt/g with	Tgt/g w/o	Car% with	Car% w/o	Δ	n with/w/o
Mo Alie-Cox TE	1.8%	5.1%	+3.3	0.6	1.5	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/2
Deion Burks WR	2.4%	5.1%	+2.7	0.8	1.5	1.5%	1.6%	+0.1	5/2
Keenan Allen WR	21.2%	23.7%	+2.6	7.2	7.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	4/2
Drew Ogletree TE	1.8%	3.4%	+1.6	0.6	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/2
Jonathan Taylor RB	11.4%	11.9%	+0.4	3.8	3.5	73.7%	61.9%	-11.8	5/2
Laquon Treadwell WR	11.4%	11.9%	+0.4	3.8	3.5	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	5/2

INFERENCEAssociation only: opponent, game script, other absences and play-calling also differ between the 5 full game(s) with and 2 without.

De'Von Achane has been out for the season since Week 3 (season-ending torn ACL, per reports). Ollie Gordon II: 7% of MIA carries in 2 full games with De'Von Achane, 56% in 3 without. Jaylen Wright: 7% of MIA carries in 2 full games with De'Von Achane, 18% in 3 without. Malik Washington: 2% of MIA carries in 2 full games with De'Von Achane, 5% in 3 without. De'Von Achane: Week 3, a partial game, is excluded from both buckets.

Breece Hall has missed Weeks 4-7 (listed Questionable (Pre-Game), Then Inactive; Did Not Play, quadricep on the injury report). Braelon Allen: 22% of NYJ carries in 3 full games with Breece Hall, 77% in 4 without. Isaiah Davis: 0% of NYJ carries in 3 full games with Breece Hall, 11% in 4 without. Andrew Beck: 0% of NYJ carries in 3 full games with Breece Hall, 1% in 4 without.

David Montgomery has missed Weeks 6-7 (listed Out, groin on the injury report; hurt in Week 5). Woody Marks: 31% of HOU carries in 4 full games with David Montgomery, 68% in 2 without. Cade Stover: 0% of HOU carries in 4 full games with David Montgomery, 6% in 2 without. Xavier Hutchinson: 2% of HOU carries in 4 full games with David Montgomery, 4% in 2 without. David Montgomery: Week 5, a partial game, is excluded from both buckets.

Editor notes, still open.

Breece Hall: shown as 'questionable' (pre-game designation) but he was inactive / did not play Week 7; the outcome is not stated

Found an error on this page? Every correction is logged in public in the corrections log.

Role Persistence Audit · Week 6 → Week 7

Did last week's change hold?

Every role change we flag gets a follow-up. Week 6 movers, checked against Week 7. Tally: held: 5, partial: 2, reversed: 3, unresolved: 2.

How this is measured

Claim record: before (baseline) / trigger (flag week) / after (follow-up week) / status, each with a stable claim ID and version

Mover: share change of 8+ percentage points in Week 6 vs Weeks 3-5 (same rules as the Opportunity Ledger)

Status rule: held: same direction and >= 50% of the trigger change; reversed: opposite direction or < 25%; partial: in between

Provenance: This first audit is RETROACTIVE: claims were reconstructed by the same rule from Week 6 data, not published at the time.

Player	Metric	Before	Trigger (Δ)	After	Status	Claim
Bam Knight RB ARI	carry share	1.4% n=3	42.9% +41.4	29.2%	held	FD-f49893246c v1
Tyler Allgeier RB ARI	carry share	18.3% n=3	51.4% +33.1	33.3%	partial	FD-49dd940f05 v1
Roschon Johnson RB CHI	carry share	8.0% n=3	39.4% +31.4	6.7%	reversed	FD-56cfc8ebf5 v1
Jaleel McLaughlin RB CLE	carry share	1.2% n=3	31.0% +29.8	0.0%	reversed	FD-ff7567a8bc v1
Kaleb Johnson RB GB	carry share	31.7% n=3	3.8% -27.8	did not play this week	unresolved	FD-71b07b1bdb v1
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB NYG	carry share	5.6% n=3	30.0% +24.4	17.6%	partial	FD-f1489b5e66 v1
Mike Washington Jr. RB LV	carry share	21.1% n=3	45.0% +23.9	35.3%	held	FD-e00b2e8a48 v1
Isaiah Davis RB NYJ	carry share	3.1% n=3	25.9% +22.8	4.8%	reversed	FD-f86f6879d6 v1
Blake Corum RB LAR	carry share	22.5% n=3	45.0% +22.5	44.7%	held	FD-d5f72acde8 v1
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB JAX	carry share	19.0% n=3	40.7% +21.7	team had a bye or game not final	unresolved	FD-511142131c v1
Kendre Miller RB NO	carry share	31.2% n=3	52.6% +21.4	47.1%	held	FD-c57748a2d3 v1
Woody Marks RB HOU	carry share	38.8% n=3	60.0% +21.2	76.0%	held	FD-a966564541 v1

DERIVEDNot flagged as role changes because the trigger game was a partial game: Brycen Tremayne (CAR, target share, Week 6: 32% of offensive snaps, after 92% in his previous game); Romeo Doubs (NE, target share, Week 6: 3% of offensive snaps, after 83% in his previous game); Terry McLaurin (WSH, target share, Week 6: 10% of offensive snaps, after 58% in his previous game); Cam Skattebo (NYG, carry share, Week 6: 8% of offensive snaps, after 63% in his previous game)

Week 6 role changes, checked in Week 7: 5 held, 2 partial, 3 reversed, 2 unresolved.

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Fantasy Score Autopsy · Week 7

The week's biggest swings, in arithmetic

How far each player moved from his own season average, split into volume, efficiency, receptions, touchdowns and everything else. The parts add up to the swing.

How this is measured

Scoring: Standard: 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing TD, -2 per interception, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per rushing or receiving TD, -2 per fumble lost, 2 per two-point conversion, 6 per return TD. PPR adds 1 per reception.

Swing: Week points minus the player's average points per game in earlier games this season

Volume: (opportunities now - baseline opportunities per game) x baseline yardage points per opportunity

Efficiency: change in yardage points (0.04 per passing yard, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard) not explained by volume

Touchdowns: change in touchdown points

Other: interceptions, fumbles lost, two-point conversions

Big play: this week's yardage points from the longest rush and longest reception when 20+ yards

volumeefficiencyreceptionstouchdownsother(faded = negative)

Above their average

Tony Pollard RB, TEN vs CLE

FACT25 car, 129 yds, 3 TD; 3/3 rec/tgt, 26 yds

36.5

PPR pts (std 33.5)

8.6

Avg before, Weeks 1-6 (n=6)

+28.0

PPR swing (std +26.3)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +4.2 · efficiency +5.1 · receptions +1.7 · touchdowns +17.0

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 28 vs 16.7/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.55 vs 0.37. This week's points: receptions 3.0, yardage 15.5; largest-play yardage 3.6 pts (long rec 16, long rush 36), TDs 18.0, other 0.0.

Mason Taylor TE, NYJ vs MIA

FACT5/6 rec/tgt, 62 yds, 2 TD

25.2

PPR pts (std 20.2)

3.6

Avg before, Weeks 1, 2, 5, 6 (n=4)

+21.6

PPR swing (std +18.8)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +1.4 · efficiency +3.4 · receptions +2.8 · touchdowns +12.0 · other +2.0

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 6 vs 3.0/g; yardage points per opportunity 1.03 vs 0.46. This week's points: receptions 5.0, yardage 6.2; largest-play yardage 2.0 pts (long rec 20, long rush –), TDs 12.0, other 2.0.

KC Concepcion WR, CLE vs TEN

FACT3 car, 23 yds; 8/10 rec/tgt, 129 yds

23.2

PPR pts (std 15.2)

6.6

Avg before, Weeks 1-6 (n=6)

+16.6

PPR swing (std +12.3)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +3.0 · efficiency +9.0 · receptions +4.3 · other +0.3

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 13 vs 6.8/g; yardage points per opportunity 1.17 vs 0.48. This week's points: receptions 8.0, yardage 15.2; largest-play yardage 3.2 pts (long rec 32, long rush 18), TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

Davis Allen TE, LAR vs LV

FACT4/5 rec/tgt, 20 yds, 2 TD

18.0

PPR pts (std 14.0)

2.1

Avg before, Weeks 1-6 (n=6)

+16.0

PPR swing (std +13.0)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +2.1 · efficiency -1.1 · receptions +3.0 · touchdowns +12.0

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 5 vs 1.7/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.40 vs 0.63. This week's points: receptions 4.0, yardage 2.0, TDs 12.0, other 0.0.

Makai Lemon WR, PHI vs DAL

FACT7/8 rec/tgt, 67 yds, 1 TD

19.7

PPR pts (std 12.7)

5.0

Avg before, Weeks 1-6 (n=6)

+14.7

PPR swing (std +10.7)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +1.3 · efficiency +3.4 · receptions +4.0 · touchdowns +6.0

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 8 vs 4.8/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.84 vs 0.42. This week's points: receptions 7.0, yardage 6.7; largest-play yardage 2.1 pts (long rec 21, long rush –), TDs 6.0, other 0.0.

Jameson Williams WR, DET vs GB

FACT5/9 rec/tgt, 91 yds, 2 TD

26.1

PPR pts (std 21.1)

11.5

Avg before, Weeks 1-5 (n=5)

+14.6

PPR swing (std +13.2)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume +3.1 · efficiency +0.5 · receptions +1.4 · touchdowns +9.6

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 9 vs 5.8/g; yardage points per opportunity 1.01 vs 0.95. This week's points: receptions 5.0, yardage 9.1; largest-play yardage 3.0 pts (long rec 30, long rush –), TDs 12.0, other 0.0.

Below their average

Kenneth Walker III RB, KC vs SEA

FACT14 car, 36 yds; 4/5 rec/tgt, 21 yds

9.7

PPR pts (std 5.7)

27.6

Avg before, Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 (n=5)

-17.9

PPR swing (std -19.1)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -3.9 · efficiency -5.6 · receptions +1.2 · touchdowns -9.6

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 19 vs 25.6/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.30 vs 0.59. This week's points: receptions 4.0, yardage 5.7, TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

Bryce Young QB, CAR vs TB

FACT14/27, 163 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT; 1 car, 9 yds

5.4

PPR pts (std 5.4)

22.1

Avg before, Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 (n=5)

-16.7

PPR swing (std -16.7)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -4.3 · efficiency -1.2 · touchdowns -6.0 · other -5.2

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 28 vs 42.0/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.27 vs 0.31. This week's points: receptions 0.0, yardage 7.4, TDs 4.0, other -6.0.

Nico Collins WR, HOU vs NYG

FACT2/5 rec/tgt, 6 yds

2.6

PPR pts (std 0.6)

18.4

Avg before, Weeks 1, 4, 5, 6 (n=4)

-15.8

PPR swing (std -12.3)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -3.2 · efficiency -4.6 · receptions -3.5 · touchdowns -4.5

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 5 vs 8.0/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.12 vs 1.05. This week's points: receptions 2.0, yardage 0.6, TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

Jalen Coker WR, CAR vs TB

FACT1/4 rec/tgt, 9 yds

1.9

PPR pts (std 0.9)

17.0

Avg before, Weeks 1, 2, 3, 6 (n=4)

-15.1

PPR swing (std -10.1)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -4.3 · efficiency -2.8 · receptions -5.0 · touchdowns -3.0

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 4 vs 8.8/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.23 vs 0.91. This week's points: receptions 1.0, yardage 0.9, TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

Isaiah Likely TE, NYG vs HOU

FACT2/4 rec/tgt, 12 yds

3.2

PPR pts (std 1.2)

18.2

Avg before, Weeks 1-6 (n=6)

-15.0

PPR swing (std -10.5)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -3.8 · efficiency -1.4 · receptions -4.5 · touchdowns -5.0 · other -0.3

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 4 vs 9.8/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.30 vs 0.65. This week's points: receptions 2.0, yardage 1.2, TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

Derrick Henry RB, BAL vs CIN

FACT17 car, 45 yds; 1/2 rec/tgt, 4 yds

5.9

PPR pts (std 4.9)

19.5

Avg before, Weeks 1-6 (n=6)

-13.6

PPR swing (std -13.1)

DERIVEDPPR swing decomposition (sums to the swing):

volume -1.9 · efficiency -3.2 · receptions -0.5 · touchdowns -8.0

Opportunities (targets + carries + pass attempts) 19 vs 23.3/g; yardage points per opportunity 0.26 vs 0.43. This week's points: receptions 1.0, yardage 4.9, TDs 0.0, other 0.0.

Score autopsy: Tony Pollard scored 36.5 PPR, +28.0 vs his average (6 games). Volume +4.2, efficiency +5.1, receptions +1.7, touchdowns +17.0, other +0.0.

Score autopsy: Kenneth Walker III scored 9.7 PPR, -17.9 vs his average (5 games). Volume -3.9, efficiency -5.6, receptions +1.2, touchdowns -9.6, other +0.0.

Editor notes, still open.

KC Concepcion: Week 5 is counted as a full game in 1 claim(s), but he left early (11 offensive snaps (16%) after 92% in his previous game).

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Projection Audit · Weeks 6, 7

Projections as published before kickoff, against what happened

We store the projection exactly as it stood before each game and score it afterwards. Overall: 341 players, mean absolute error 5.45 PPR points, average error -0.71.

How this is measured

Projection: latest licensed weekly projection snapshot collected BEFORE the player's kickoff (collected_at shown)

Error: actual PPR points (house formula) minus projected PPR points

MAE / bias: mean absolute error; mean error (positive = players outscored projections)

Filter: players projected for 5+ PPR points; players who did not play are listed separately

Snapshot lead: 1.2 to 132.0 hours before kickoff

DERIVEDError by position

5.16

5.42

5.57

5.48

Pos	n	MAE	Bias	Median abs	Within 5
QB	52	5.16	-0.97	4.96	50%
RB	88	5.42	-0.44	4.85	56%
WR	143	5.57	-0.90	4.79	51%
TE	58	5.48	-0.41	4.82	53%

DERIVEDOutscored projection the most

Player	Wk	Proj	Actual	Error	Tgt proj/act	Car proj/act	Snapshot
Tony Pollard RB TEN	W7	13.4	36.5	+23.1	2.2/3	20.5/25	2026-10-25T12:15
Mason Taylor TE NYJ	W7	5.6	25.2	+19.6	2.9/6	–/0	2026-10-25T12:15
Tre Tucker WR LV	W6	10.4	26.7	+16.3	5.3/7	0.5/0	2026-10-14T12:15
Tommy Tremble TE CAR	W6	5.0	20.6	+15.6	3.0/4	–/0	2026-10-14T12:15
Jameson Williams WR DET	W7	10.8	26.1	+15.3	5.7/9	–/0	2026-10-25T12:15
Germie Bernard WR PIT	W6	10.6	25.7	+15.2	6.5/12	–/0	2026-10-14T12:15

DERIVEDFell furthest short

Player	Wk	Proj	Actual	Error	Tgt proj/act	Car proj/act	Snapshot
Bijan Robinson RB ATL	W6	23.1	7.3	-15.8	4.5/2	20.1/9	2026-10-14T12:15
Derrick Henry RB BAL	W6	20.6	5.0	-15.6	1.8/1	22.8/17	2026-10-14T12:15
Nico Collins WR HOU	W7	16.7	2.6	-14.1	7.4/5	0.3/0	2026-10-25T12:15
Jalen Coker WR CAR	W7	15.4	1.9	-13.5	8.4/4	–/0	2026-10-25T12:15
Cam Skattebo RB NYG	W6	13.2	0.0	-13.2	2.2/0	17.2/0	2026-10-14T12:15
Rhamondre Stevenson RB NE	W6	16.3	3.6	-12.7	3.9/0	16.8/14	2026-10-14T12:15

FACTProjected but did not play (excluded from error): Lamar Jackson (BAL, 19.3), Jalen Hurts (PHI, 17.8), Rashee Rice (KC, 14.4), Breece Hall (NYJ, 14.0), Saquon Barkley (PHI, 13.8), DJ Moore (BUF, 13.5), Quinshon Judkins (CLE, 13.3), Tyler Warren (IND, 12.4), Jeremiyah Love (ARI, 11.3), Kyle Monangai (CHI, 10.1), Adonai Mitchell (NYJ, 9.3), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WSH, 6.9).

Projection audit: average miss in PPR points by position: QB 5.2 (n=52), RB 5.4 (n=88), WR 5.6 (n=143), TE 5.5 (n=58).

Editor notes, still open.

Jalen Hurts: listed only as did-not-play; sources report a season-ending injury the report does not mention

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Data: licensed league statistics feed and licensed weekly projections, observed 2026-10-28 04:00 UTC. Shares, baselines and decompositions are Wire Report calculations.

FACTreported or recorded data. DERIVEDour calculation, definition shown. INFERENCEinterpretation: associations, not causes.

Evidence, not advice: no rankings and no start or sit calls. Injury designations are attributed to the official report; we do not forecast health. Every page is checked by an independent editor before it publishes, and every correction is logged in public: corrections.