What happened: FanGraphs now lists the Boston Red Sox with a 19.9% chance of reaching the postseason. The projection puts Boston below the 20% threshold, framing the club as a long shot rather than a clear October team.

Why it matters: Sub-20% odds sharpen the buy-or-sell question as the trade deadline nears, and a team hovering near .500 has to weigh whether to add or to move veterans. Boston's posture here connects directly to the trade assets already being floated around the Red Sox ahead of the deadline.

What to watch: Watch whether the projection climbs or falls over the next week and how the front office signals its deadline direction.