What happened: Deesha Thosar projects the Rays as the landing spot for Tarik Skubal before the Aug. 3 trade deadline. Her forecast also sends Luis Arraez to the Yankees and Kevin Gausman to the Braves.

Why it matters: Detroit's fringe wild-card position complicates any decision to trade its ace, while an acquiring club would get a short-term rental ahead of his free agency. Tampa Bay's deep farm system could support the prospect cost without ending its postseason push.

What to watch: Competing interest from Los Angeles, Milwaukee and other contenders will test Tampa Bay's willingness to meet Detroit's price.