What happened: Patrick Mahomes enters 2026 after surgery to repair torn ligaments in his left knee. He is on track to start Week 1 on Sept. 14 after participating throughout the offseason program.

Why it matters: His 2025 production included career highs on the ground, making rushing usage a central variable in his return. The new season follows a 6-11 finish and playoff elimination.

What to watch: His rushing volume and downfield passing in the opener will provide the first test of the regression forecast.