What happened: The Red Sox open the second half of the 2026 season with a 40.1% chance of reaching the postseason, per FanGraphs, according to Jon Morosi. A trade sending closer Aroldis Chapman elsewhere is increasingly unlikely to happen at all.
Why it matters: Boston's win streak tilted its trade-deadline posture toward buying rather than selling, and holding Chapman in the bullpen fits a team trying to close the postseason gap rather than restock for the future. The shift follows the same nine-game winning streak that shifted Boston's deadline focus toward buying.
By the numbers: 40.1% projected postseason probability per FanGraphs.
What to watch: Watch Boston's deadline moves as a buyer ahead of Aug. 3, with Chapman likely to stay in the bullpen through the stretch run.