Red Sox enter second half at 40.1% postseason odds, Chapman trade fading

Nine straight wins pushed Boston toward buying, not selling

Wire Report IntelligenceUpdated Jul 171 min read

The Red Sox open the 2nd half with a 40.1% chance of reaching the postseason, per @fangraphs. An Aroldis Chapman trade Via @jonmorosi on X

What happened: The Red Sox open the second half of the 2026 season with a 40.1% chance of reaching the postseason, per FanGraphs, according to Jon Morosi. A trade sending closer Aroldis Chapman elsewhere is increasingly unlikely to happen at all.

Why it matters: Boston's win streak tilted its trade-deadline posture toward buying rather than selling, and holding Chapman in the bullpen fits a team trying to close the postseason gap rather than restock for the future. The shift follows the same nine-game winning streak that shifted Boston's deadline focus toward buying.

By the numbers: 40.1% projected postseason probability per FanGraphs.

What to watch: Watch Boston's deadline moves as a buyer ahead of Aug. 3, with Chapman likely to stay in the bullpen through the stretch run.

Sources

@jonmorosi 2026-07-17T13:50:00.084076+00:00

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