What happened: The case rests on Harbaugh managing Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo while easing Malik Nabers back into the offense. Isaiah Likely adds a familiar option for Harbaugh, while Abdul Carter anchors the pass-rush outlook.
Why it matters: Nabers’ recovery from the torn ACL that ended his 2025 season creates an early variable for the offense. Carter gives the defense a separate route to improvement during Harbaugh’s first year.
By the numbers: Clearing 7.5 requires at least eight wins, while 50-1 odds imply roughly a 2% probability. Likely enters 2026 with 135 receptions, 1,568 yards and 15 touchdowns in 63 regular-season games.
What to watch: Training camp in late July will offer the first look at Nabers’ ramp-up and Harbaugh’s plans for Carter.