What happened: Only one season remains on Stephen Curry's $62.6 million contract. He has maintained that he wants to finish his career in the Bay Area.
Why it matters: Golden State controls nearly all its future first-round picks through 2033, preserving options to rebuild around Curry. Miami acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo and dealt Tyler Herro, limiting the assets available for another blockbuster.
By the numbers: The market assigns a 94% implied probability to Curry remaining with Golden State.
What to watch: Any shift in Curry's stance or Golden State's use of its draft capital could change the outlook before the 2026-27 season.