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NBA·ANALYSIS·August 2, 2026 06:45 PM ET

Curry market keeps Warriors overwhelmingly favored

Charlotte sits at 2%; Miami's trade assets are depleted.

Wire Report IntelligenceUpdated Aug 21 min read
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What happened: Only one season remains on Stephen Curry's $62.6 million contract. He has maintained that he wants to finish his career in the Bay Area.

Why it matters: Golden State controls nearly all its future first-round picks through 2033, preserving options to rebuild around Curry. Miami acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo and dealt Tyler Herro, limiting the assets available for another blockbuster.

By the numbers: The market assigns a 94% implied probability to Curry remaining with Golden State.

What to watch: Any shift in Curry's stance or Golden State's use of its draft capital could change the outlook before the 2026-27 season.

Sources

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NBAAnalysisCharlotte HornetsGolden State WarriorsMiami HeatBam AdebayoGiannis Antetokounmpo
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