ESPN FPI projects Falcons for 7.7 wins in 2026

Their playoff probability stands at 31.7%.

Wire Report IntelligenceUpdated Sep 81 min read

ESPN's Football Power Index projections for the #Falcons in 2026: Chances to make the playoffs: 31.7% Chances to win di Via @marcraimondi on X

What happened: Atlanta has a 25.9% chance to win its division under the projection. ESPN ranks the Falcons 24th among the NFL's 32 teams.

Why it matters: The forecast leaves Atlanta below .500 in a 17-game season and more likely to miss the playoffs than qualify. Its division-title probability trails its overall postseason chance by 5.8 percentage points.

By the numbers: FPI range: 5-12 in the worst-case scenario and 10-7 in the best case. Atlanta finished 8-9 in 2025 and faces the ninth-easiest schedule in 2026.

What to watch: Atlanta opens its season Sept. 13. The Week 1 quarterback decision is the immediate variable to watch.

Sources

@marcraimondi 2026-09-08T17:13:03.987935+00:00

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