What happened: Atlanta has a 25.9% chance to win its division under the projection. ESPN ranks the Falcons 24th among the NFL's 32 teams.
Why it matters: The forecast leaves Atlanta below .500 in a 17-game season and more likely to miss the playoffs than qualify. Its division-title probability trails its overall postseason chance by 5.8 percentage points.
By the numbers: FPI range: 5-12 in the worst-case scenario and 10-7 in the best case. Atlanta finished 8-9 in 2025 and faces the ninth-easiest schedule in 2026.
What to watch: Atlanta opens its season Sept. 13. The Week 1 quarterback decision is the immediate variable to watch.